Canadian Personal Finance Blog

Even though the Stats Canada February 2010 core CPI numbers don’t say it, the Bank of Canada’s numbers say inflation, enough to have various pundits now saying that the predicted interest rate increases may come sooner than July, this year.

If you look at the Stats Canada numbers in fact things look better than in January with the 12 month rate dropping to 1.6% as compared to the January 12-month rate which was 1.9%, so this shows a drop in the CPI, but what the Bank of Canada measures and what Stats Canada has in their basket are a little different.

CPI down a little

The graph even looks nice, but sometimes looks can be very deceiving.

Gasoline prices exerted the most upward pressure on the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) for a fourth consecutive month. In February, prices at the pump were 15.3% higher than they were in February 2009. This follows a 23.9% rise in the 12 months to January.

The graph for gas prices shows a normalization of prices, but at a higher rate than last year, which is not a good thing.

Gas Prices over Time

Bank of Canada Core is the Problem

As mentioned, if you ask the Bank of Canada, they are not as happy about these numbers because in their index:

The Bank of Canada’s core index advanced 2.1% over the 12 months to February, following a 2.0% rise in January.

February’s increase was due primarily to price increases for passenger vehicles, as well as for traveller accommodation affected by the Olympics.

This is what might cause your interest rate increases. The financial pundits are certainly jumping on the bandwagon that this will signal interest rate increases, so it will be interesting to see if the Banks maybe take the lead and increase Mortgage and short term lending rates in preparation for this eventual increase? I would certainly lock in now, but that is only my opinion.

The Big Table

Alternate Property Tax Model

So after whining about my Property Taxes, I think I have come up with a simple(r) model for Property Tax valuations which could make lives simpler (simpler for me).

Simply put, your Property Tax is set when you buy your house. When the price is set, that is what your property taxes will be based on, until the house is sold again.

Sounds easy doesn’t it? The municipalities could tweak it so that they could add an inflationary increase each year, so that their incomes could slowly increase, and maybe a caveat on the valuation at sale (i.e. the City can have an independent body valuate the house at sale time and then base property taxes on that value), in case folks try to sell houses for $1 or the like.

Advantages?

• Property tax increases would be limited year over year to only an inflationary increase, better than current system where Property Tax valuations can wildly vacillate (mostly up)
• If someone stays in their house for a long period of time, they will not end up having to sell their house because their neighbourhood suddenly went “up scale” and their Property Taxes have sky rocketed (as in Vancouver), good for Fixed Income seniors.
• May cause a boom in contracting work for upgrading houses, since it’s value will not increase unless it is sold (i.e. why move to a bigger house, when it ends up being cheaper to add a room to my current home)
• Less yearly paper work with new valuations and warning home owners of the pending change.

Disadvantages?

• Municipalities incomes may not be as large as they need them to be and it may force them to cut services (to run a balanced budget)
• Tom-foolery and shenanigans are still possible given there can be manipulations of these systems, like we have seen with rent controlled properties and such.
• Might throw cold water on the housing market, with folks maybe staying in an older house, instead of buying a brand spanking new one, because it costs more (and the older house has been inhabited in for a while)

Opinions? Should I write this one up and present it to the Ottawa City Council as a progressive and exciting way to move forward in the 21st century? Maybe if I add a Green element to it, it might be an easier sell (it will help the environment, because it will slow housing developments)?

Parity Between US Buck and Loonie?

That is what the CIBC and their analyst Zafar Bhatti thinks. Same reasons as previous Loonie flights but still worth noting:

• Commodity prices, and Canada being the Northern Resource Kingdom to the U.S. (and a lot of the world)
• Potential for higher interest rates in Canada, thus strengthening the dollar (remember targets are June)
• Canada is a good investment in terms of our credit balance. Yes our Government is in debt, but nothing like the Americans, and most of our debt is held by Canadians themselves (i.e. Savings Bonds), so we are a good risk (maybe we can get a Amex Platinum for Nations?)

An excellent quote from the CIBC is:

…This puts the Bank of Canada between a rock and a hard place, if they signal rates are going to rise, the Canadian dollar will make a run for parity or stronger…

A blip over the summer with a subsiding in the fall might be a good thing for Canadian consumers, maybe.

Big Deal!

Well, actually it can be a very big deal if the Canadian dollar gets really strong, it will cause Canadian products to be too expensive for your Yankee cousins (whether the Canadian dollar strengthens against the Chinese currency and the Euro remains to be seen). Many, many small Canadian firms rely on trade with the U.S. and a soaring Loonie will cause that market to dry up, unless the manufacturers slash prices in reaction to this rise.

Reverse cross border shopping will start again. Many things are cheaper in the U.S. if you simply look at the price tag, and if the Canadian Dollar can buy the same as a U.S. dollar, why shop in Canada? For someone in Ottawa you are 55 minutes from Ogdensburg, and not that far from other U.S. towns and cities that will see an influx of “Frost Back” Canadians with their Beaver Bucks in hand. This will help these border towns a great deal, but will have the reverse effect on Canadian border towns.

Is this a permanent thing? I have no bloody idea, but I am now looking at US Index funds (and ETF’s) thinking that if the Canadian dollar goes any higher am I getting a bargain? As is pointed out in the CIBC report, if American Inflation explodes (say because their Government is printing money as fast as they can spend it) and the U.S. Central Bank has to raise interest rates, then this will simply be a “bulge” which will subside quickly and the Canadian Dollar may slide back to where it has been (of course if Canadian Inflation explodes in reaction to American Inflation, the two factors may cancel each other out).

I would encourage you to read over this very interesting report and form your own ideas and opinions about where we are going from here (economically).

Don’t we live in interesting times?

No Rate Hikes

So the Bank of Canada kept their overnight target rate at 1/4 per cent for March, giving us all cheap money for a little while longer. Rememmber that the C.D. Howe institute last week urged the bank to go Harder, Faster with their rate increases, but the bank is holding off for now.

The telling phrase to read in this report is:

“…Conditional on the current outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target….”

So the end of the second quarter, or say the June/July time frame, money is going to start getting tighter, which could make for an interesting summer.

Time to start planning on how you are dealing with your debt (if you have it) with a higher interest rate, or what to do about your Bonds, given interest rates will go up.

Federal Budget Looms

I suppose Larry MacDonald will again be locked in a large room with a bunch of other “sweaty” financial newspaper types in preparation for the Federal Budget scheduled for March 4th. Larry always has interesting stories about what really goes on in that room, while all these “touts” pour over the budget to boil the essence of it down to a 1 minute blurb on TV or 750 words or less for the papers.

Hopefully we shall move back to a more balanced budget and maybe put together a plan to start paying off the national debt (again), but stay tuned, I am sure there will be something exciting on Thursday.

Harder Faster

That is actually one of my favorite April Wine albums, but unfortunately it is also the message the C.D. Howe Institute is pushing for Interest Rate increases this year in their report How Soon? How Fast? Interest Rates and Other Monetary Policy Decisions in 2010.

The report itself is a very interesting read on how and why things have happened in terms of credit and interest rates, however, there is a nasty little recommendation that is in it:

When the overnight rate does begin to rise, the changes must be as aggressive as the rate cuts of 2008 and 2009 with increases of 50 basis points at every announcement date until mid-2011 not seeming unrealistic.

Remember how quick and dramatic the rate cuts were last year? There may be an equal and opposite reaction in terms of speed and rate increase this summer and into 2011, which will cause a tightening of credit and tumult in the bond markets too.

Were you planning on renewing your mortgage, or getting a new one? Might be time to lock into whatever rate you can find now, if you need to, since it seems we are in for a bumpier ride in the interest rate world.

And The Winners Are

Yes there were 10’s of entrants to get the free copies of Quicktax, and the winners are:

• • • 2Hirondelles, who was selected by my son from my lucky Pittsburgh Steelers hat.
    • JohnnyG, who was selected by my wife from that same lucky hat!

I will be contacting you via e-mail on how you would like to receive your free software. Congrats to all entrants.

There will be more giveaways soon (as soon as someone gives me more stuff to give away).