Canadian Personal Finance Blog

Stats Canada published the Consumer Price Index for September is at 3.4% which is a 0.1% drop (in increase) from August’s numbers.

A full explanation from Stats Canada says:

The CPI excluding gasoline increased 2.2% in the 12 months to September; stripping away all energy components, the CPI advanced 1.9%.

Of the eight major components of the CPI, shelter costs remained the primary contributor to the 12-month increase in consumer prices in September. Food costs replaced transportation as the second leading contributor. Transportation costs, now third, continued to be buoyed by higher gasoline prices, although lower prices for vehicles have had a moderating effect.

Increasing costs for mortgage interest, natural gas and fuel oil and other fuels continued to propel costs for shelter. Nearly all food items registered price increases, but bread and cereal products, fresh fruit and vegetables and dairy products contributed significantly to higher food prices in September.

So if you are to believe the numbers inflation without oil isn’t too bad, but with oil prices added things are not quite so good. Given the free fall in the price of gasoline and oil, will we start seeing a big drop in Inflation, or even Deflation soon? Good question.

Black Friday for Stocks?

Futures for all American indexes are way down and it looks like another Black sell off Friday ahead for investors. More bargains to be had, but for those holding stocks, more money going out the window, for now.

Financial Meltdown Continues (aka I really don’t like Mondays)

Well, just when you thought it was safe to go swimming in the Amazon, a fresh batch of piranhas come out and chew the living daylights out of you. Yesterday, I watched the TSX dip below 10,000 for the first time in almost 6 years, and while there was a ‘recovery’ of sorts by the end of the day, the roller coaster continues to swerve, dip and dive making even the most ardent investors sweat a great deal. 

My RRSP as it stands now seems to have lost about 20% of it’s value, and it may well dip a lot lower before things start getting back to normal. Is this a concern? Not really, since the money is for my alleged retirement, which is many years away, and most of the equities I own are fine (OK some of the banks I wonder about), but I am not planning on getting “Whip Sawed” as Michael James points out. I will continue on the course I have chosen for now.

Why Am I not Financially Panicking?

Well, I am trying to be more optimistic for one thing (yes, I am not succeeding all the time), but I also am about to inject a great deal of cash into my retirement, to be invested in some fashion, and for once, I think I may enjoy shopping for bargains in this BEAR of a market. 

My wife and I (Mrs. C8j as we call her) will need to put together a plan for investing and put together a budget with some “bear” assumptions to get us through to next year, with the severance I have just received, but with those decisions will come the interesting questions of where to invest? Most of the financial bloggers I know will be getting that question asked to them (once I can get them over a beer or two), and that is one of the reasons I am smiling during this grim financial time.

Could it get worse financially?

Never ask that question. Every time in my life that I have stated, “It can’t get any worse…”, it has, so I have stopped asking that question, or making that statement. Follow the lawyers credo in this situation, “Never ask a question you don’t already know the answer to…”.

Remember many things can happen, the Horses Might Even Sing!

Election?

Who(m)ever inherits this mess in the U.S. or Canada, I wish you good luck, because you are being left holding the bag, and as usual, the culprits (as it were) are enjoying the fruits of their labors, on our nickel (not that I am pointing a finger of blame, just that I know someone made money on this, and they aren’t giving any of it back).

For the rest of either electoral race, the simple answer to any other issue is

“It’s the ECONOMY STUPID!“

to paraphrase Bill Clinton’s campaign of 1992. Nothing else matters, now.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow watch for a celebration of sorts on this blog, celebrating 4 years of work and the fun I have had doing it (unless today brings even worse news, then I’ll push it out another day).

So the bail out in the U.S. continues slowly, with the Senate passing a revised “fix it” plan, which now must go back to the Congress for their approval, so we still could have some roller coaster ups and downs as folks attempt to get things remedied or at least stabilized in the U.S. (and the rest of the financial world really).

Am I optimistic? Yes, but I am an optimistic guy. Is this the end of it? Absolutely not, there is many more turns in the road, my hope is we are not like Wile E. Coyote and suddenly realize there actually is NO road underneath us.

Buffett Gives GE Cash

This one intrigues me, because Warren Buffett seems to be “bargain hunting” right now, while looking like he is a “savior” for a lot of companies. He has “given” GE $3B to help them with their cash flow issues. Evidently Mr. Buffett stated:

“I have been a friend and admirer of GE and its leaders for decades. They have strong global brands and businesses with which I am quite familiar. I am confident that GE will continue to be successful in the years to come.”

He has put his money where his mouth is, because for this cash infusion Mr. Buffett receives a large amount of GE common shares. Mr. Buffett will be coming out of this whole mess (in my opinion) with a lot more money in his pockets.

If Mr. Buffett wishes to give me a ca$h infusion, he is more than welcome. 

Do Not Call the DNCL

I read stories about how the “No Call” registry to stop tele-marketers crashed, but I had no problem, but don’t call them, go to the web site instead at No Call Registry . Evidently I have 31 days to wait for the calls to stop, which should be good (I registered my cell phone as well), however, my guess is the folks who call from 000-000-0000 will continue to call, and if I ever find out who it is, I will report them to the CRTC for having an illegal phone number.

Why is TD Diluting My Shares?

TD is evidently going to be selling $5Bn of “mixed shelf” securities (i.e. shares, class A first preferred shares, warrants to purchase preferred securities and debt securities), this money will be going into their general fund and will be used throughout the company. More Class A shares means dilution of my shares value, by adding more to the pool, not sure I like this idea, but the statement was unclear as to how many Class A shares might be sold, so we shall have to wait and see.

The markets had a rally yesterday and many stocks had nice comebacks, but will it last? All of this hinges on some kind of remedy on the mess in the U.S., so only time will tell on this one.  Will it all come back to where we were before this mess? Most stocks will, but some may take a long time to come back (my guess anything to do with Financial Institutions in the states, or that had exposure to this mess).

No Trigger For Canadian Housing Bubble Burst

The CIBC is claiming their is no trigger to cause a housing price meltdown similar to the one in the U.S., since we don’t have sub-prime loans and we only have a small percentage of non-conforming mortgages. Good to hear someone say that, but wasn’t the CIBC one of the Canadian banks most affected (effected?) by this whole mess in the U.S.? 

GDP Up in July

The Canadian GDP was up 0.7% in July which is good and is larger than the increases of only 0.1% in May and July. This information while useful also precurses the current financial mess that we are in, but it is still heartening to think that the Canadian Economy for now is doing ok.

GDP for July 2008

Another Surplus for 2008

Jim Flaherty announced that this year Canada will have a budget surplus of almost $3B. That news can only help the Conservatives during the election, and just makes me wonder what will be done with that extra money? My hope is more National Debt pay down, which will help our kids as much as any Green Tax might (IMHO).

Fraud Remedied

TD has repaid me the money that was defrauded from my account, using a duplicate made of my wife’s access card (I am a Victim of Debit Card Fraud). All of it was paid back, which was good, but it did take a while, so I owe some money on my secured line of credit as well. TD phoned to say that the case had been referred to the police and would not comment any further. The next time I am in Montreal I will look for Bar Le Bievre which was where the withdrawals came from, just for my own curiousity.