Canadian Personal Finance Blog

Even though the Stats Canada February 2010 core CPI numbers don’t say it, the Bank of Canada’s numbers say inflation, enough to have various pundits now saying that the predicted interest rate increases may come sooner than July, this year.

If you look at the Stats Canada numbers in fact things look better than in January with the 12 month rate dropping to 1.6% as compared to the January 12-month rate which was 1.9%, so this shows a drop in the CPI, but what the Bank of Canada measures and what Stats Canada has in their basket are a little different.

CPI down a little

The graph even looks nice, but sometimes looks can be very deceiving.

Gasoline prices exerted the most upward pressure on the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) for a fourth consecutive month. In February, prices at the pump were 15.3% higher than they were in February 2009. This follows a 23.9% rise in the 12 months to January.

The graph for gas prices shows a normalization of prices, but at a higher rate than last year, which is not a good thing.

Gas Prices over Time

Bank of Canada Core is the Problem

As mentioned, if you ask the Bank of Canada, they are not as happy about these numbers because in their index:

The Bank of Canada’s core index advanced 2.1% over the 12 months to February, following a 2.0% rise in January.

February’s increase was due primarily to price increases for passenger vehicles, as well as for traveller accommodation affected by the Olympics.

This is what might cause your interest rate increases. The financial pundits are certainly jumping on the bandwagon that this will signal interest rate increases, so it will be interesting to see if the Banks maybe take the lead and increase Mortgage and short term lending rates in preparation for this eventual increase? I would certainly lock in now, but that is only my opinion.

The Big Table

Stats Canada announced some improving numbers for February in the world of Employment, which bodes well for the economy, but also points towards a recovery, which will cause the government to maybe get out of the way, by lowering their intervention, but also have them stop making money so easy to get (i.e. upward pressures on interest rates). This seems to be the opinion from a few folks about these numbers.

Underlying February’s employment change was a notable gain in full-time work (+60,000), which was partially offset by a decline in part time (-39,000). Since the summer of 2009, employment growth has been all in full time.

On Going Employment Graph

Employment Better for Over 55

An interesting figure is that employment for folks over the age of 55 was one of the biggest growth areas in February. This means lots of older folks, who maybe should be thinking about retirement are actually going out and getting jobs?

Employment for men and women aged 55 and over has been trending up for a number of years, the result of employment growth combined with more people moving into that age group.

Yes we are all getting older, but why are we looking for jobs? Guess we need to save a little more for our retirement?

Unemployment Down Too

This month the unemployment numbers trended down, which is good as well.

Big Picture Graph for Unemployment

The Big Table

And here is the big table to ogle for more information:

Reader’s Note: Random Thoughts will return next week.

Also, watch for the First Big Cajun RRSP Software Giveaway! Coming real soon (once I figure out how it is going to work ).

Gasoline Pumps Inflation

Stats Canada announced the CPI for January and it looks like Inflation is starting to become more of a factor for the Bank of Canada to think about. Year over year for January Consumer Prices were up 1.9% (remember that in December year over year it was 1.3%), so the 0.6% jump is a big one.

Black Gold, Texas Tea

Yes, it is Gasoline prices that are helping fuel this inflationary jump, and this could mean follow on price increases as this price increase percolates through the system.

The increase in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was due primarily to gasoline prices. In January, gasoline prices were 23.9% higher than they were in January 2009. This follows a 25.6% rise in the 12 months to December 2009.

Gasoline prices exerted upward pressure on the CPI for the third consecutive month, as a result of price volatility in the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. Prices at the pump have been relatively stable since July 2009.

More importantly the Bank of Canada’s Core rate (which is what they start looking at for when they wish to increase interest rates) is now around 2.0% (year over year) up from 1.5% in December, which may cause the Bank of Canada think tank to start re-thinking when they plan on turning on the Interest Rate economy brakes, which most think is June July timeframe, but if we see another Inflationary jump next month, it may be sooner.

The Big Table of CPI

For those who love details and numbers, I present the Big Table for your perusal:

Friday, Stats Canada published their monthly update on the Labor Force Survey for January and the numbers were a little better than the prognosticators were guessing, as employment increased by 43,000 jobs last month (the number bandied about I had heard was 15,000), which actually pushed the unemployment rate down 1/10% as well.

This is relatively good news, given the gloom and doom from the stock markets and the commodities world of the past few days (at the end of last week).

Employment gains in January were driven by women aged 25 to 54 and youths. This was the first notable increase for youths since the start of the employment downturn in the fall of 2008.

So more part time jobs, but at least work is out there, for the youths.

Employment Curve up to January 2010

Unemployment dropped a little, which should make folks happier, but it is still well over 8% which is a number that does not reflect a healthy thriving economy.

Unemployment Graph up to January 2010

Much of the gains were seen in Ontario (30,000), but Ontario’s unemployment rate stayed at 9.2% as more folks were also looking for jobs, which means unemployment is actually on an upward trend since the summer.

The Big Table

Here is the Big table from Stats Can, find your age group and see what happened to folks of your age and gender.

Stats Canada announced the CPI numbers for December and for all of 2009 and the trend started in November got a little more momentum with the CPI for 2009 being 1.3% (over 12 months), and Gasoline sits front and center again as an issue.

The rise in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was due primarily to gasoline prices, which exerted upward pressure on the CPI for the second consecutive month. This follows an extended period in which they were the main contributors to year-over-year declines in overall consumer prices.

For the year the big price jumpers were:

• Energy given we are back at $1 per liter this is no surprise there
• Transportation given gas prices again, no surprise, although the cost of mass transit is going up a lot too
• Health and Personal Care this one really worries me, if health care costs keep doubling the average on inflation, we older folks might be in trouble come retirement time
• Alcoholic Beverages not as high as health care, but you can at least give us a chance to drown our sorrows? C’mon!!!

See the big table for the numbers.

The Big CPI Table

I really like this table because it shows you all the ugly numbers together: