Another interesting month in March for the CPI with the CPI running at 1.2% down from 1.4% in February. Lower inflation is a good thing for consumers for now, except the numbers are very deceiving, when Food is the major upward pressure (a day to day cost we all incur) and with Energy prices stabilizing, what will come in the next few months. With the amount of money “vomited” into the monetary system by governments, is Inflation that far off?
Food Glorious Food
The main culprits in the upward pressure is the cost of shelter and the cost of food. Specifically Stats Canada points out:
Food prices, the largest factor, rose 7.9% during the 12-month period to March, on the heels of a 7.4% rise in February. March’s increase was the largest since November 1986.
Yikes, that is expensive, seems our Food dollar is really not going that far these days.
Energy and Transport DOWN
The Energy and Transport sectors did their best to lower the CPI, if not put us into a deflationary spiral, by dropping significantly over the year as well.
Mitigating the overall increase in the CPI was a 6.2% decline in transportation costs. Year-over-year price drops for gasoline and for purchasing and leasing passenger vehicles were the primary downward contributors. Increasing prices for passenger vehicle insurance mitigated the overall 12-month drop in transportation costs.
Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.4% in the 12 months to March. Overall, energy prices fell 11.2% during the same period, a larger drop than February’s decline of 8.8%.
Now that is a price drop! No wonder they are laying folks off in the oil patches.
The Big Picture
| (2002=100) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relative importance2 | March 2008 | March 2009 | February 2008 to February 2009 | March 2008 to March 2009 | |
| Unadjusted | |||||
| % change | |||||
| All-items | 100.003 | 112.6 | 114.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Food | 17.04 | 112.6 | 121.5 | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| Shelter | 26.62 | 120.1 | 122.6 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Household operations and furnishings | 11.10 | 104.1 | 106.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.36 | 96.0 | 95.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Transportation | 19.88 | 117.8 | 110.5 | -5.8 | -6.2 |
| Health and personal care | 4.73 | 107.9 | 110.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 12.20 | 101.3 | 101.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 3.07 | 126.6 | 129.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| All-items (1992=100) | 134.1 | 135.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | |
| Special aggregates | |||||
| Goods | 48.78 | 108.1 | 107.6 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| Services | 51.22 | 117.1 | 120.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| All-items excluding food and energy | 73.57 | 109.6 | 111.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Energy | 9.38 | 143.2 | 127.1 | -8.8 | -11.2 |
| Core CPI4 | 82.71 | 110.9 | 113.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Random Thoughts will return next week, have a great weekend all.
Inflation in 2009
- Inflation Edges Up in December 2009 for the first time in a while
- How do you spell INFLATION? In November, evidently, it looked like it might start again
- Consumer Price Index is Trending Up Again in October of 2009
- CPI: How Many Negatives Make it Deflation? a good question for September 2009
- CPI Down Again (kind of) for August of 2009. Is that really deflation?
- Deflation again! CPI Down for July (sort of) really deflation? Not really.
- Inflation down 0.3% for June most of this in June 2009 is caused by gasoline pricing silliness.
- Consumer Price Index for May 2009: Nudges Up but overall it keeps looking like not much
- CPI For April 2009 at 0.4% Wow , calm down big fella it is not that good news
- Consumer Price Index Down a Little for March 2009 which is a good thing, don’t you think?
- Inflation Jumps for February 2009, did it really?
