Stats Canada announced on the 9th a massive drop in the employment numbers with (March 2020) over 1,011,000 jobs lost and many other folks had significantly less hours worked. Increased jobless claims will continue to climb during this pandemic.
The unemployment rate now runs at 7.8% (March 2020), and things will only get worse for the next few months, unfortunately. What will happen as jobless claims rise?
A few more weeks into the COVID19 Lockdown of 2020 and more folks are sick, more medical staff are burning out, and we are running out of supplies. Many folks seem to be refusing to believe the seriousness of the situation, and plan parties and meetings and such.
But, we will come through this. We will learn and hopefully all of us will be a little wiser (in life and with money as well).
Easter comes and it is a time of Hope and new beginnings, but those new beginnings may not be soon. For those upset that they cannot be with loved ones, remember why.
Past Writings
A few new ideas over the past two week:
- My CRA Account is something that you really should have. It helps you see what is going on with your Income Tax Returns, gives you all your maximums for the year (e.g. RRSP, etc.,) but also you can watch your status for the new CERB.
- I kind of cheated claiming I wrote Henson Trusts since it really is just a link back to a great article on the Blue Bean Counter. I started writing an article, and it was just too darn complicated for me.
- SEO leads to Trolls? It actually does.
More Financial Writings for Troubled Times
Some interesting articles out there for this past little while.
- Fed should pay every American more, let hedge funds and billionaires ‘get wiped out,’ says Social Capital CEO, which is an interesting (if not controversial) concept. He didn’t say Eat the Rich, but he kind of meant it.
- Michael James points out, Rebalancing Does Its Job, even during a horrific downturn where the markets are completely unpredictable.
- Is it time to do some Spring Cleaning in Your Finances ? Well you do have a little spare time, and maybe you don’t need to make any more muffins or bread today.
- COVID-19 Government Program Updates – Plus: Why Emotions are a Poor Guide to Investing from the Blunt Bean Counter again comes through with solid information for these changing times.
- The BBC points out something I think we all could guess, Coronavirus: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says
Tweet of the Week
Preet is getting prodigious on his video postings during this Quarantine, amazing what being locked in your home most of the day.
Oh and do you have a HELOC?
Video of the Week
I believe the Queen said it the best this week.
The CBC wanted to talk about your finances, and brought in an old friend of this site!
Random Thoughts from the Past
- Covid-19, Stay Home and #MoneyTalk (March 27th)
- Dusty Typewriters and #MoneyTalk (November 8th)
- March Madness and #MoneyTalk (March 30th)
- Lent Begins and #Moneytalk (March 6th)
- Christmas Treats, RESPs, The Markets and Polkas and #MoneyTalk (December 17th)
- GM, PC M/C Changes, Podcasts and #MoneyTalk (November 30th)
- RDSP Awareness , Volatility and #MoneyTalk (October 12th)
- Tech Infiltration , NAFTA/USMCA, WiFi, Tornadoes and #MoneyTalk (October 5th)
Just FYI
Just recently released “… a study in Santa Clara County using immunity tests found that rather than the 1,000 confirmed cases, between 48,000 and 81,000 people in the area actually had the virus.
(source also presented here: https://youtu.be/jGUgrEfSgaU)
In Los Angeles, another study showed that in a community thought to have roughly 8,000 cases… instead has somewhere between 221,000 and 442,000.
In Chelsea, near Boston… a random sample showed that one-third of those tested had already come in contact with the coronavirus.â€
And the results: “As The Los Angeles Times reports:
“Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%.â€
(so that is 3 additional studies).
Also watch this video of latest on the ground info by frontline doctors with comparisons (other US districts, different countries, lock down vs not, etc):
https://facebook.com/terrencekwilliams/videos/219266722698502/
(there is silence at the end for about 1 min then there are 2 more mins of video with audio). Note what is said about that this info was really known about 6-8 weeks ago but is now clearly confirmed.
(BTW, this is just a very small sample of a wealth of info based strictly on the factual science, not just theoretical modelling).
I completely agree with you to continue to protect your loved ones, especially taking the best precautions if they are in the vulnerable categories (elderly, pre-existing conditions, especially respiratory and diabetes; which I believe you had mentioned that is the case for yours).
That said, you say “…but until there is an actual working vaccine, my opinion is this is not going away.” that is completely untrue. Again, as I pointed out, over 95% of people exposed to this virus HAVE recovered…100% WITHOUT a vaccine, so it cannot be said that this is THE solution.
BTW, they are talking about a vaccine taking at least 12-18 MONTHS…that is the best estimate. At that rate, the vast majority of the population will likely have been exposed to it, so a vaccine would be of little use. Any “benefit” that may come from a supposed vaccine will likely NOT be due to the vaccine but due to herd immunity that will have already taken place. Holding out for a vaccine as the “saviour” to the world is likely a false and misplaced hope. Just sayin’.
And normally it takes 3-4 years of proper testing to make sure ANY vaccine is even safe to use. Would you truly take a vaccine that has not been properly tested and proven to be safe with proper controlled studies? Many vaccines have been found to cause more harm than good. Of course, this is all a personal choice.
Do note also that recently published research in the world renowned, respected, peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
To put that in perspective, the last large pandemic, of the H1N1 (Swine Flu), had a death rate of 0.5%. There were almost 61 Million confirmed cases and about 300,000 (to as high as 575,000) deaths worldwide. Do you recall them shutting down the world economy over H1N1? (Of course not).
And do note that coronaviruses (virii) are nothing new, some simply causing colds and and other ailments. And this one is playing out similar to all others in terms of spread.
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronaviruses
The key difference is that the spread is faster and the most vulnerable are being impacted the hardest. So the death rate with the Wuhan virus is estimated to be only slightly higher. But the numbers being reported do not provide the complete picture and appear far worse than what is actually going on.
For comparison, we are still at only 1/3 of worldwide death cases vs H1N1 (though it is very possible to be exceeded and has been in the US for example, with almost 19K deaths) but similarly 1/3 (or less) of the 2017/2018 flu season with 61,000-90,000 deaths in the US alone (with 45 to 59 MILLION US cases, vs only 500,000 so far with Wuhan virus), of which most of us heard nothing about.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
And then there is the concern raised by doctors that the CDC is actually instructing doctors to certify deaths as caused by COVID-19 even if not tested for it directly, as long as there is a CIRCUMSTANTIAL possibility. In other words, they are instructing them to inflate the numbers, attributing cause to this virus in the absence of proof.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
That said, already, numbers are starting to level off worldwide, including hot spots like New York, suggesting that we may be approaching the inflection point; the point where the number of new cases and deaths start to decrease. It has taken about 100-150 days to get to this point (depending on what start date is used). Of course, this only reflects the mid-point and so there is still a while to go. It took about 300 days to reach the inflection point with H1N1. Only time will tell how true this holds and how it will play out.
And let’s not forget that we cannot speak strictly about absolute numbers. The population of the earth has increased from about 6.8 Billion in 2010 to about 7.8 Billion now. That is an almost 15% increase in just 10 years. So, we need to take that into consideration in reported numbers. So reported numbers need to be 15% higher to be compared.
Not downplaying the severity of this virus but I do wish that more of the comparison would be shared to help keep things in perspective.
Irrespective, I am glad that I can say with confidence and assurance “O death, where is your sting?†For the sting of death is sin, and the power of sin is the law. But thanks be to God, who gives us the victory through our Lord Jesus.”
Anyway, just sharing info. Stay safe.
I lost a lot of respect for the Lancet after the whole “Vaccines causes Autism” paper they allowed through (they have since withdrawn it and such, but they seem a little quick to jump at times).(links banner has a telling statement, “COVID-19 is an emerging, rapidly evolving situation.”)
I think the only way we know for sure how this all goes is come back in 6 months. If you are right, everything goes back to nearly normal and we talk about overreactions. If not, well, we shall see.
Again, don’t agree, but we shall see.
Well, one thing that is unlikely to happen is that everything will go back to normal any time soon, regardless of the final outcome of this outbreak.
The impact of actions taken and unjustified fear instilled around the world will change everything for a very long time.
Again, I think all of these actions are justified, and not fear mongering, but we shall see. Yes, the world is going to change, only time will tell if it is for the better or the worse (overall). Financially, yes, it is going to be a mess for a while.
Just some thoughts:
As severe as the virus is, do note that the “cure” is far worse than the disease and the current distress is partly artificially induced. Only half the countries are on total lockdown but are faring no better than countries that are not.
And the financial fallout is only part of the problem. There is also fallout of increased health problems for people not getting the medical attention they need for other issues, the inflicted mental health issues that are already ensuing, including increased suicide, from isolation, medical and financial issues.
Many experts are arguing that the better approach is to achieve herd immunity by exposing the least vulnerable and isolating only the most vulnerable. The idea being that once the least vulnerable develop immunity (which would only take about 2-4 weeks) the virus would dissipate (no more hosts) so these can then come in contact with the vulnerable without risk of the latter being exposed and contaminated.
This virus does not need a vaccine to achieve this since over 95% of all cases have survived this by their own immune system.
Anyway, stay safe.
Yeh, we really don’t agree on this one. Without testing for anti-bodies or a lot of tests your herd concept is in the future.
I think most experts are doing a lot of guessing, which is to be expected with a novel virus like this. The math people I know are not sure what the numbers out there currently mean, and if they are not sure, I am not sure. The way this virus moves is still not completely understood, and we will only really know in 6 months looking back on the data collected.
Given I have far too much at stake in that I have more than 5 loved ones where this virus could easily be a death sentence, I am willing to say my opinion is very much go with the far more cautious model. Yes, we need people saying, “… we should open up..”, but until there is an actual working vaccine, my opinion is this is not going away.
The other problem with the herd concept, is that they are still not sure whether this is as benign to the healthy as it has been reported. How many volunteers would come forward? Pretty much none of the medical professions, would be my guess.
Anyhow, I disagree (vehemently).