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Inflation 4.1% August 2021 (Ouch)

For those that have not followed me since 2005, allow me to say, I told them so. Back in 2009, I warned Inflation was coming with all this stimulation, and here it comes (in 2021).

OK, so I am very much the Blogger who Cried Wolf on Inflation. I am not even sure this is going to be the beginning of an Inflationary spiral.

Stats Canada thinks:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.1% on a year-over-year basis in August, the fastest pace since March 2003, up from a 3.7% gain in July. The increase in prices mainly stems from an accumulation of recent price pressures and from lower price levels in 2020. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.2% year over year.

From Stats Canada Consumer Price Index, August 2021

This is the highest rate since before I started commenting in 2005? Something to note folks. Governments can’t keep printing money with impunity.

Gasoline is a major driver right now as can be seen when it is taken out of the calculations. Prices are rising, and you have Governments pumping money into the situation. What happens when that money stops? The other issue is you have a reticent workforce, who doesn’t really want to go back to their crappy jobs. Not a recipe for economic greatness.

What does the Bank of Canada think about this? Actually using their calculations we are only a little bit above their goals?

lternative measuresMay 2021June 2021July 2021August 2021
Percent
Measure of core inflation based on a factor model, CPI-common (year-over-year percent change)23451.81.71.71.8
Measure of core inflation based on a weighted median approach, CPI-median (year-over-year percent change)23672.32.32.52.6
Measure of core inflation based on a trimmed mean approach, CPI-trim (year-over-year percent change)23682.72.73.13.3
Consumer Price Index statistics, preferred measures of core inflation – Bank of Canada definitions, year-over-year percent change, Canada

Source(s):Table 18-10-0256-01.

Additional Reads From Stats Canada

Previous Rants About Inflation

And that is just scratching the surface.

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Inflation 3.4% April 2021 (Told you so)

For those that have not followed me since 2005, allow me to say, I told them so. Back in 2009, I warned Inflation was coming with all this stimulation, and here it comes (in 2021). Mark my words this is only the beginning.

OK, so I am very much the Blogger who Cried Wolf on Inflation. I am not even sure this is going to be the beginning of an Inflationary spiral.

Stats Canada thinks:

Year-over-year consumer price growth (+3.4%) in April rose at its fastest pace since May 2011 amid the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly because prices fell sharply during the early months of the pandemic. As some regions extended restrictions to limit the spread of COVID-19, causing employment losses for some Canadians, prices grew 0.5% month over month in April 2021, the same growth rate as in March 2021.

Prices rose in every major component on a year-over-year basis. Transportation prices (+9.4%) increased in April, mainly because of higher gasoline prices compared with April 2020.

From Stats Canada Consumer Price Index, April 2021

Funny no mention of the Trillions being poured into the Economy by every Government world-wide? Maybe they ran out of ink? The Moore’s Law like growth of Real Estate prices not too much of a factor?

Transportation went up a lot, but Food and Shelter are going up big time too.

The Food thing is going to get worse, with the inability to get the migrant workers that our farms rely on into the country. Is it a good thing we need migrants to do this job? That is for another days discussion. Oh and Electricity prices in Ontario went “back up” when they changed back to a “peak” and “off peak” billing again.

What does the Bank of Canada think about this? Actually using their calculations we are only a little bit above their goals?

 January
2021
February
2021
March
2021
April
2021
 % change% change% change% change
CPI-common3,51.31.31.51.7
CPI-median4,62.12.12.12.3
CPI-trim4,72.02.02.12.3
Consumer Price Index statistics, preferred measures of core inflation – Bank of Canada definitions, year-over-year percent change, Canada

Source(s):Table 18-10-0256-01.

Save up to 50% on life insurance.

Christmas Wishes from the Past

I seem to do this a lot, so here are my Christmas wishes from years gone by:

Additional Reads From Stats Canada

Previous Rants About Inflation

And that is just scratching the surface.

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Vaccines, Here Comes Christmas and #MoneyTalk

Looks like we have a vaccine story, so I guess the answer to “COVID are we f*cked?“, is, “Not so much, but not great yet“. There are multiple vaccines, and as usual some interesting issues. The reactions from allergic folks shouldn’t be too surprising. Does this mean the end is near? Not quite yet, my guess is we have a pretty dire Winter ahead, but things are looking better.

How can the government afford all this spending? Old folks like me quibble about the National Debt, but evidently Modern Monetary Theory suggests, Government Debt doesn’t matter. I don’t agree, but we shall see, maybe I am wrong (again).

If you received CERB, you might be getting a note from the CRA asking for the money back. There was some interesting wordsmith work done, which changed the context of eligibility.

Nice to see the prime rates at the banks are steady, however, given their “High Interest Savings Accounts” are mostly pay 0.1% or lower, doesn’t mean much to me. EQ bank seems to be paying a bit more, at 1.5% currently (see ads on this site).

Inflation (year over year October 2020) 0.7%
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate November 17th 0.25%
Unemployment Rate (as of November 2020)8.5%
Real GDP By Expenditure (Q3 2020)(quarterly change)8.9%
Population of Canada (Est July 1, 2020)38,005,238
CIBC current prime rate2.45%
BMO current prime rate2.45%
Scotiabank prime lending rate2.45%
TD prime lending rate2.45%
Tangerine prime lending rate2.45%
Some Useful Financial Data for Canadians as of December 12th

COVID19 Data Canada

Click here to find an up to date graphic from the Government of Canada

Total Cases442,069
Total Deaths13,109
Data as of December 10th 2020

Past Writings

Here comes Christmas at a break neck pace. Going to be a very different celebration, given the lockdowns going on. Haven’t done one of these posts in a while, it seems:

  • I got absolutely no comments on I Likes My Coffees Like I Likes My Money, which leaves me scratching my head. I figured someone would post a snarky comment or something, or rail at me about my last comment about women, but nothing. Maybe all my “readers” are actually just me?
  • When to Put Money in RRSP is a very good question, luckily I created a diagram, that a bunch of trolls said, “That is not a waterfall”. You get what I mean though.
  • Free Credit Bureau Access sounds like a great deal, however, as before free comes with costs. Thanks to having Desjardins accounts, I am now worse for wear. I NEED credit bureau access (for 5 years no less).
  • Convenience always has a cost, and The Dangers of Automatic Reloading outlines that cost.
  • The Hidden Cost of Land Transfer Taxes I wrote about this before, but somehow managed to resurrect the topic again. Land transfer taxes are rarely mentioned as part of your Real Estate costs, but they do add up.
  • How to Open a Kids Bank Account in the time of COVID is more complicated than you might think. It worked, but I wish I’d been able to use one of the on-line banks. Kids accounts are not usually part of their portfolio.
  • Specified Disability Savings Plan – SDSP – How Does it Work ? This is an important way that someone who is going to die in the next 5 years can take money out of their RDSP. Yes, the RDSP is complicated, but still a great very long-term savings option, for the disabled.
  • If you make a credit card payment late, there is a Credit Card: One Time Services that you can ask for. You can’t do it very often, and you better have been paying off your cards regularly.
  • The Government has finally gotten around to cleaning up the question RDSP after DTC Lost question. Naturally the response is complicated, but the account no longer needs to be collapsed within a year of losing the DTC. The assumption is that the person with the disability most likely will get their Disability Tax Credit back (in time).


Christmas is coming, but do we care?

Given many parts of Canada are going to be under lockdown over Christmas, how will we celebrate? Hopefully in a more sedate fashion? I ask that you follow your local authorities rules about congregating together.


Tweets of the Past While

This is so truly English. The gentleman’s biggest complaint about getting the Vaccine? He couldn’t find parking so he was late!

Can he be any more English?

He isn’t wrong

What do you do with a 3 stories tall Grinch? Save Christmas, that is for sure!

The Grinch Saves Christmas Again

Random Thoughts from the Past

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COVID19 Opening Up, Middle Aged Canada and #MoneyTalk

Slowly we attempt to return to a semblance of normalcy, in our new COVID19 dominated world. In Ottawa, most businesses are “open” but under strict rules about distancing and masks are to be used pretty much everywhere.

Don’t expect Interest rates to go up any time soon.

The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds.

Bank of Canada July 2020 Monetary Report

They are ready to react if Inflation occurs, but it sounds like they are not expecting that any time soon. Cheap credit continues on.

Not sure about the whole kerfuffle about wearing a mask. I wear it to protect my family and to protect the folks I interact with. Why folks are yelling at minimum wage employees of firms, is beyond understanding.

Can we nominate Dr. Fauci for President? Asking for a friend. Border being closed is good for Canada overall, but bad for tourism and those towns that rely on our American visitors.

On the topic of masking, my battle against unwanted email continues. I have not slain the dragon but it is wounded and my influx of spam has slowed.

The median age in Canada is 40.8 years old? I was not aware of that (the data is from July 2019). Seems like the country is not aging nor is it getting any younger.

There are more Seniors than Young Folk and it is only going to increase in the future.

Of those old folks most of them are Baby Boomers too. Stats Can’s definition of a Boomer is born between 1946 to 1965. That is interesting because for the longest time I wasn’t a boomer, but now I am included in them. I don’t know if that is a good thing or not?

Inflation (year over year May 2020) -0.4 %
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate July 17th 0.25%
Unemployment Rate (as of June 2020)12.3%
Real GDP By Expenditure (Q1 2020)(quarterly change)-2.1%
Population of Canada (Est April 1, 2020)37,971,020
CIBC current prime rate2.45%
BMO current prime rate2.45%
Scotiabank prime lending rate2.45%
TD prime lending rate2.45%
Tangerine prime lending rate2.45%
Some Useful Financial Data for Canadians as of July 17th

COVID19 Data Canada

Click here to find an up to date graphic from the Government of Canada

Total Cases109,264
Total Deaths8,827
Data as of July 15th 2020

Past Writings

Thanks to a bad tooth infection I have been distracted with other things. It is slowly being repaired, but I will hopefully have an implant to replace the missing teeth soon.


The Economy Limps Forward

While businesses slowly reopen, can they survive in this environment? That remains to be seen. Real Estate, however, continues to defy logic, in terms of market elasticity.


Tweets of the Week

I have said, Don’t Click That, before, I guess some folks will do anything if a Celebrity tells them to on Twitter.


For those who thought that somehow the Financial Industry was an ethical place.


An interesting perspective from our friends in Reddit.


Random Thoughts from the Past

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Opening up, May Day, COVID19 and #MoneyTalk

Another day to celebrate with the proletariat, our brothers and sisters who have thrown off the shackles of oppression, happy May Day! During the COVID19 lock down celebrating any day, is something. I think it is Friday (May 1, 2020) today?

More talk of restarting things in Ontario, which will be a slow process. In Ottawa things are very bad in our Seniors and Care Residences, and that is a concern for all of us. How to keep our Seniors and those who need our help, safe, is the most important plan.

This Wouldn’t Worry You Would it?

Not sure about the wearing a mask thing. I did see that the NFL on-line store is selling NFL Team themed masks, which would be cool. Wearing a Vikings mask would be good, but I would really like to walk into a bank wearing an Las Vegas Raiders mask.

Now is the time to ask for help or lowering of fees from your Bank, Insurance Company, or Internet Provider/Phone Company. Banks have claimed they will lower rates, but I haven’t seen it (TD’s Unsecured Line of Credit is at 5.60% (their prime is 2.6%), yet my Tangerine Line of Credit is at 2.45%). Your Car Insurance should be lower, you are not driving as far, yet I didn’t get much back from my Insurance company. As for Bell, they have actually raised my rates. Yes, the answer is always NO, unless you ask. If your income is curtailed, you should ask for all the help you can get.

Inflation (year over year February 2020) 2.2%
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate April 21st0.25%
Unemployment Rate (as of March 2020)7.8%
GDP Growth January 2019-201.8%
Population of Canada (Jan 1, 2020)37.894 Million
CIBC current prime rate2.45%
BMO current prime rate2.45%
Scotiabank prime lending rate2.45%
Some Useful Financial Data for Canadians

Past Writings

I did an interview with Tom Drake and that seems to cause more posts on the topic of RDSPs:


Become a Tangerine client today

More Financial Writings for Troubled Times

Some interesting reads for your weekend, while you are still practicing social distancing (I hope).


Tweet of the Week

Gail Vaz-Oxlade has been posting about her Master Money Class, and this tweet is an important thing for folks with kids with a Disability Tax Credit.

This one from the New Yorker is a bit too topical.


Video of the Week

I must admit I am a bit of a Fanboy for Stephen Fry, fairly sure I’d watch him read quietly for hours.

Corona Virus (in the UK) by Stephen Fry

Preet is showing off his prowess in Financial Matters, and also his ability to grow a very bushy beard.

75% Wage Subsidy and CERB Repayment? | Canada Emergency Response Benefit and CEWS (Wage Subsidy)

One more from Doug Hoyes, which really does make me sick.

The Vultures are Circling due to COVID19

Random Thoughts from the Past

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