Even though Canada is no longer in a recession (by definition) we now found out that the job picture became much gloomier in November. Stats Canada published their Labour Force Survey for November 2015 on Friday, and their summary is quite clear in terms of how things are going with jobs:
Employment decreased by 36,000 (-0.2%) in November, the result of losses in part-time work. The overall employment decline in November followed a similar-sized increase in October. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.1% in November.
Losses in part-time jobs can happen, but in November? Aren’t there more jobs in retail and such? In case you think there are no puzzling bits of data in the report, there is.
Compared with 12 months earlier, employment increased by 124,000 or 0.7%, with all the growth in full-time work. Over the same period, the number of hours worked grew by 1.1%.
So there are more full-time jobs being done since last year at this time, and there are more hours being worked? Confusing, but still a bit of good news at least.
More people working, but a dip this past month.
Employment for Past 5 years
The unemployment graph shows a step up as well.
Unemployment for past 5 years
The telling story for me is the following statement:
In November, employment fell by 24,000 among youths aged 15 to 24.
So fewer young folks with jobs? I guess that stands to reason as they are the ones that work those lost part-time jobs mostly (or am I just rationalizing here).
Tables from the article, which you really should check out, as they are all quite interesting.
Stats Canada published their Labour Survey for October 2015, and after some fairly bland numbers for the past little while, thanks to the Liberal victory there are 44,000 more jobs in the economy! Yes, that is me being a smart-ass, the Liberals had little or nothing to do with it.
The exact quote from the report was:
After four months of little change, employment increased by 44,000 (+0.2%) in October, bringing the number of people employed in Canada to over 18 million for the first time. The unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 7.0%.
Is this a vindication for Mr. Harper? I have no idea, but it is nice to have some positive numbers to talk about for once. Unemployment dropping is a good thing.
Unemployment for Past 5 years
I stole my headline directly from the report with, specifically:
In October, employment increased by 44,000 for women aged 55 and older and their unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.0%. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment for this group was up 92,000 (+5.8%), partly the result of growth in their population.
Congratulations ladies! The statement that there are more women over age 55 is simply reflecting the baby boomers getting older.
The only concerning detail I read was that there were 32000 more jobs in Public Administration, thus the public service continues to grow?
A more optimistic looking curve is the following:
Employment for the past 5 years
If you want even more data from Stats Canada check out these tables of all the data available:
On Friday Stats Canada published their monthly Labour Force Survey for September 2015, and as usual the numbers are a little confusing and can be interpreted in a few ways. Whoever writes these reports does have a knack of summing up the confusion well in the first paragraph of the report:
Employment was little changed for the fourth consecutive month in September (+12,000 or +0.1%). The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.1% as more people participated in the labour market.
Isn’t that just clearly confusing? The sentence that really is telling is the fact that unemployment is up, because more folks are looking for jobs.
Unemployment Creeping Up For Past Little While
I really do wish there was some measure of “quality of jobs” (although the hours works index does exist) because the other telling statement is the following:
Part-time employment rose by 74,000 in September, which was largely offset by a decline of 62,000 in full time.
This economy seems to be just great in creating Part-time jobs for folks (which is good news for old guys like me who will retire soon and then be looking for a side-hustle to make a little extra pocket money, but crappy news for those 20 year olds hoping to start a career) but not many full time jobs (or at least keep them going).
Employment Keeps Going Up slowly, but doesn’t reflect full or part time jobs
One more statement I like to note in this report
In the 12 months to September, the number of private sector employees rose by 71,000 (+0.6%) and self-employment increased by 68,000 (+2.5%). Over the same period, public sector employment was little changed.
I think it is good to hear that the Public Sector is holding steady and the private sector is growing jobs, my opinion is that Governments should not be the major job creator in an economy.
It does seem that compared to our friends in the U.S., we are not doing as well.
Adjusted to US concepts, the unemployment rate in Canada was 6.0% in September. In the United States the rate was 5.1%. Compared with September 2014, the unemployment rate in Canada edged up by 0.1 percentage points, while the US rate fell by 0.8 percentage points.
Will the coming election change things? We shall see.
Check out the big tables at the Stats Canada site:
The raw numbers show 12,000 more jobs in August and which pushed the Employment numbers up 0.1%, however (and luckily for the election) seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased 0.2% to 7.0%. The unemployment numbers add more to the “We are in a recession” argument, however, there are more folks working, as well.
Employment for Past Little While and it Continues to Increase
The report points out the highlights of the report, nicely.
In August, employment increased among women aged 55 and older, while it edged down for men and women aged 25 to 54. There was little employment change among the other demographic groups.
Provincially, employment rose in Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, Manitoba and New Brunswick. There was little change in the other provinces.
So not a lot of good or bad news really. No good news for old dudes like me (over 55) but then again, no decrease either.
The interesting comment, comes in where the jobs are being created:
Employment increased in public administration and educational services, while it was little changed in the remaining industries.
The number of public sector employees was up in August, while self-employment edged down. At the same time, private sector employment was little changed.
I am never happy to see employment increasing in the public sector, an economy should not grow on that, it needs the private sector to help grow wealth and jobs.
Unemployment for past little while, with an uptick
Happy Labour Day
As Karl Marx would say, it is time to celebrate the workers control of the means of production!
A link to Marx’s thome on Amazon
Job Reports from 2015
So far here are the employment reports on this site:
Stats Canada pointed out that the Canadian Economy (in terms of folks working and jobs) is treading water and not getting any worse, but not flourishing either, in their report Labour Force Survey for July 2015 published this past Friday.
The story is a little more heartening if you look at the year over year numbers:
Compared with 12 months earlier, employment increased by 161,000 or 0.9%, the result of more full-time work. Over the same period, the total number of hours worked rose 1.2%.
I am confident, that if I was a Tory candidate I would quote that part of the report, however, if I was in the opposition I’d point out how stagnant job creation has become month over month (“… nice hair though…”).
Employment Graph Since 2010 CANSIM table 282-0087.
You can see the leveling off in the graph, for the past little while.
Despite little change in the level of employment in Alberta, the unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.0% in July as more people searched for work. Since January, the unemployment rate in the province has increased by 1.5 percentage points.
This is a telling statement, with job losses in Manitoba and Saskatchewan as well, whereas Ontario and Quebec there are “more” jobs (see the table at the end of this post for more details).
It will be hard to argue this is good news (on the election front), but it isn’t disastrous news (although it is not very good news out west).
Unemployment Graph since 2010 CANSIM table 282-0087.
The Big Table
As I mentioned let us look at this, province by province.