Thanks to the new Energy Crisis (or energy gouging depending on how you want to look at it), Inflation started to jump in March (year over year) by 1.5%.
Specifically Stats Canada points out in their report:
The larger year-over-year rise in the CPI in March compared with February was led by energy prices, which rose 4.6% in the 12 months to March, following a 1.6% increase in February. Gasoline prices rose 1.4% on a year-over-year basis, after decreasing 1.3% in February. In addition, the natural gas index increased 17.9% in March, following a 5.5% rise in February. The rise in the natural gas index in March was mainly attributable to a price increase in Alberta.
Enbridge is jumping Natural Gas prices, Ontario is jacking up their Electric rates and gas prices are going up like wild-fire in Ottawa, all in all, I smell a start to inflation again? We shall see if I am correct or not.
A very interesting saw tooth pattern seems to be happening over the past while, isn’t it?
Overall if this trend continues, it might actually get the Bank of Canada’s attention.
Bank of Canada’s Index
Remembering that the Bank of Canada has its own “basket of goods” that it measures inflation with, their version of inflation was not quite as high as Stats Canada’s version:
The Bank of Canada's core index rose 1.3% in the 12 months to March, after increasing 1.2% in February.
Not as high, but still troubling.
The Big Table
What is going up in price? Here is a non-seasonally adjusted table for you (look for Shelter, Energy, and Alcohol):
|Relative import1||March 2013||Feb 2014||Mar 2014||Feb to Mar 2014||Mar 2013 to Mar 2014|
|All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI)||100.002||122.9||124.1||124.8||0.6||1.5|
|Household operations, furnishings and equipment||12.66||114.7||115.3||115.7||0.3||0.9|
|Clothing and footwear||5.82||95.3||91.0||94.0||3.3||-1.4|
|Health and personal care||4.93||118.3||118.4||118.1||-0.3||-0.2|
|Recreation, education and reading||10.96||105.2||106.4||106.5||0.1||1.2|
|Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products||2.79||139.8||142.9||145.3||1.7||3.9|
|All-items CPI excluding energy||91.44||120.0||121.0||121.5||0.4||1.3|
|All-items CPI excluding food and energy||74.85||117.2||118.2||118.6||0.3||1.2|
1.2011 CPI basket weights at January 2013 prices, Canada, effective February 2013. Detailed weights are available under the Documentation section of survey 2301 (www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/2301-eng.htm).
2.Figures may not add up to 100% as a result of rounding.
3.The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the CPI’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components. For additional information on the core CPI, consult the Bank of Canada website (www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/).
4.The special aggregate “Energy” includes: electricity; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; and fuel, parts and supplies for recreational vehicles.