Inflation

Inflation at 0.4 % For April in Canada

by bigcajunman on May 21, 2013

Just before the long weekend our friends at Stats Canada published their monthly Consumer Price Index review and they claimed that Inflation for the last 12 months (ending in April) Inflation ran at 0.4%, to which I call, Poppycock! (apologize for the potty mouth).

Gas prices are again the reason that prices are allegedly not going up that fast, however, we have also seen this past weekend, Gas prices jumping 7 cents a litre for no real reason except a need to gouge the hell out of consumers on a long weekend. Oil prices have not moved in the past few months, yet somehow there is a Gas shortage? We are desecrating the environment in Alberta that would make the Leaders of the Industrial Revolution wince, yet gas prices are going up? Wow…

OK, enough of a rant on that, here is a graph to show inflation with and without Gas included, which suggests our reliance on fossil fuels is not dwindling as much as the Granola Crunching Generation would hope:

Consumer Price Index Changes with and without Gasoline

So as we can see Gasoline is still the most important part of the Consumer Price Index. Want to see just how wacky Gasoline prices have been over the past little while?

Up to 25% swings in price changes? Who is Making these Changes? The Market?

Food prices continue to track at about 1.5% year over year price increase, while clothing continues to drop (for all you lovers of clothes produced in 3rd world sweat shops (as opposed to the 20th century where it was North American sweat shops)).

If you look at the seasonally adjust CPI, we in fact had a drop in CPI in April:

CPI Dropped (if you include a Seasonal Adjustment)

Bank of Canada’s core index

As we know the Bank of Canada has their own way of measuring the CPI, but with their “slide rules” they have calculated inflation to be well below their threshold of excitement:

The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 1.1% in the 12 months to April, following a 1.4% increase in March.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index posted no change in April, after rising 0.2% in March.

The Big Table

As usual I include one of the big tables from Stats Canada to help you comprehend where you are spending more:

Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada - Not seasonally adjusted

	Relative importance¹	April 2012	March 2013	April 2013	March to April 2013	April 2012 to April 2013
	%	(2002=100)			% change
All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI)	100.00²	122.2	122.9	122.7	-0.2	0.4
Food	16.60	130.1	132.4	132.1	-0.2	1.5
Shelter	26.26	126.6	128.0	128.2	0.2	1.3
Household operations, furnishings and equipment	12.66	112.6	114.7	114.3	-0.3	1.5
Clothing and footwear	5.82	95.3	95.3	94.7	-0.6	-0.6
Transportation	19.98	131.3	129.5	128.6	-0.7	-2.1
Health and personal care	4.93	118.9	118.3	118.6	0.3	-0.3
Recreation, education and reading	10.96	105.4	105.2	105.2	0.0	-0.2
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products	2.79	137.7	139.8	140.1	0.2	1.7
Special aggregates
Core CPI³	84.91	119.7	120.9	121.0	0.1	1.1
All-items CPI excluding energy	91.44	119.1	120.0	119.9	-0.1	0.7
Energy⁴	8.56	161.0	159.9	158.0	-1.2	-1.9
Gasoline	4.62	192.9	186.5	181.3	-2.8	-6.0
All-items CPI excluding food and energy	74.85	116.6	117.2	117.2	0.0	0.5
Goods	48.18	115.3	115.4	114.9	-0.4	-0.3
Services	51.82	129.1	130.3	130.3	0.0	0.9

1.2011 CPI basket weights at January 2013 prices, Canada, effective February 2013. Detailed weights are available under the Documentation section of survey 2301 (www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/2301-eng.htm).

2.Figures may not add up to 100% as a result of rounding.

3.The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the CPI’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components. For additional information on the core CPI, please consult the Bank of Canada website (www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/).

4.The special aggregate “Energy” includes: electricity; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; and fuel, parts and supplies for recreational vehicles.

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Inflation Back to 1.0% for March in Canada

by bigcajunman on April 22, 2013

Our friends at Stats Canada published their monthly Consumer Price Index (for March 2013) Report, and with Gasoline prices moderating, we are back to inflation of 1.0% for the year ending in March 2013.

CPI with and Without Gasoline Over the Past Little While

Our friends at Stats Canada said:

The slower increase in the CPI was mainly the result of gasoline prices, which fell 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in March, after rising 3.9% in February. Provincially, gasoline prices declined year over year in seven provinces.

Never ceases to amaze me that gasoline prices are so random across Canada.

A nasty spike in Fresh Fruit ( 8.7% up) and Fresh Vegetables ( 7.2% up) too, which suggests we should all keep eating junk food ? (NO!)

As we can see the increase in the CPI over the past little while:

Seasonally Adjusted Inflation over the Past Little While

Bank of Canada’s core index

Remember that the Bank of Canada measures inflation is just a little bit different way, however, the good news is, it continues to be low (so one less reason to raise bank interest rates too):

The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 1.4% in the 12 months to March, matching the increase in February.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index increased 0.2% in March, after increasing 0.4% in February.

The Big Table

What are the big tables saying where are money is worse less? Just have a look at this one:

Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada - Not seasonally adjusted

	Relative importance¹	March 2012	February 2013	March 2013	February to March 2013	March 2012 to March 2013
	%	(2002=100)			% change
All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI)	100.00²	121.7	122.7	122.9	0.2	1.0
Food	16.60	130.0	132.9	132.4	-0.4	1.8
Shelter	26.26	126.6	127.9	128.0	0.1	1.1
Household operations, furnishings and equipment	12.66	112.7	114.3	114.7	0.3	1.8
Clothing and footwear	5.82	94.8	91.4	95.3	4.3	0.5
Transportation	19.98	129.5	130.3	129.5	-0.6	0.0
Health and personal care	4.93	118.3	118.6	118.3	-0.3	0.0
Recreation, education and reading	10.96	104.9	104.7	105.2	0.5	0.3
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products	2.79	137.5	139.4	139.8	0.3	1.7
Special aggregates
Core CPI³	84.91	119.2	120.6	120.9	0.2	1.4
All-items CPI excluding energy	91.44	118.7	119.7	120.0	0.3	1.1
Energy⁴	8.56	159.5	160.1	159.9	-0.1	0.3
Gasoline	4.62	187.0	186.1	186.5	0.2	-0.3
All-items CPI excluding food and energy	74.85	116.1	116.9	117.2	0.3	0.9
Goods	48.18	114.8	115.2	115.4	0.2	0.5
Services	51.82	128.6	130.1	130.3	0.2	1.3

1. 2011 CPI basket weights at January 2013 prices, Canada, effective February 2013. Detailed weights are available under the Documentation section of survey 2301 (www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/2301-eng.htm).

2. Figures may not add to 100% as a result of rounding.

3. The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the Consumer Price Index’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components. For additional information on the core CPI, please consult the Bank of Canada website (www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/).

4. The special aggregate “Energy” includes: electricity; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; and fuel, parts and supplies for recreational vehicles.

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Inflation Up a Little in February in Canada

by bigcajunman on April 2, 2013

Back on Wednesday last week (hey I’ve taken some time off, cut me some slack), our friends at Stats Canada published their Consumer Price Index Report for February 2013 and it’s news continued to be encouraging, in that inflation continues to run at a relatively low 1.2% (year over year).

Last month the CPI rate was at a petit 0.5% year over year so this is a 140% jump over last month’s rate, however it is still well below the traditional 2.0% HOLY CRAP INFLATION Line.

Inflation in Canada for Past Little While

CPI Yearly Rate for the Past Little While

That big jump at the end of the graph actually does look quite dramatic, doesn’t it?

Who was a big culprit in this steep jump? You guessed it gasoline, to quote our friends at Stats Canada:

Gasoline prices advanced 3.9% year over year in February following a 1.8% decrease in January. On a monthly basis, gasoline prices rose 8.4% in February, the largest monthly increase since May 2008.

I think I could have guessed that one without reading the report, given the gouging I have seen in the Ottawa area for Gas. The dramatic differences by area is interesting too (in Ottawa Gas yesterday was $1.24 per liter, in Carleton Place it was $1.15 and in Peterborough it was $1.27).

If you want a much more depressing picture, have a look at this one:

Seasonally Adjusted CPI for the Past Little While

Sad eh? Remember the rate started a while ago, but it sums up nicely how the price of everything has gone up!

Bank of Canada’s core index

Remember our amigos at the Bank of Canada do their inflationary calculations in a different way:

The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 1.4% in the 12 months to February, following a 1.0% advance in January.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index rose 0.4% in February, after increasing 0.1% in January.

So the advance in this index’s increase is only 40% higher, doubt this will be the reason the B of C might tighten their purse strings (but I have been wrong before).

The Really Big Table

The Big Tables are where you really see why things are so much more expensive, so check them all out at Stats Canada, but here is a good one to whet your appetite:

Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada - Not seasonally adjusted

	Relative import¹	Feb 2012	January 2013	February 2013	January to February 2013	February 2012 to February 2013
	%	(2002=100)			% change
All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI)	100.00²	121.2	121.3	122.7	1.2	1.2
Food	16.60	130.4	131.6	132.9	1.0	1.9
Shelter	26.26	126.9	127.8	127.9	0.1	0.8
Household operations, furnishings and equipment	12.66	112.8	113.5	114.3	0.7	1.3
Clothing and footwear	5.82	91.9	87.9	91.4	4.0	-0.5
Transportation	19.98	127.8	126.7	130.3	2.8	2.0
Health and personal care	4.93	118.4	118.5	118.6	0.1	0.2
Recreation, education and reading	10.96	103.7	103.7	104.7	1.0	1.0
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products	2.79	136.6	138.9	139.4	0.4	2.0
Special aggregates
Core CPI³	84.91	118.9	119.6	120.6	0.8	1.4
All-items CPI excluding energy	91.44	118.3	118.7	119.7	0.8	1.2
Energy⁴	8.56	156.9	152.8	160.1	4.8	2.0
Gasoline	4.62	179.2	171.6	186.1	8.4	3.9
All-items CPI excluding food and energy	74.85	115.6	115.9	116.9	0.9	1.1
Goods	48.18	114.1	112.9	115.2	2.0	1.0
Services	51.82	128.2	129.6	130.1	0.4	1.5

2.Figures may not add to 100% as a result of rounding.

3.The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the Consumer Price Index’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components. For additional information on the core CPI, please consult the Bank of Canada website (www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/).

4.The special aggregate “Energy” includes: electricity; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; and fuel, parts and supplies for recreational vehicles.

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CPI at 0.5% for January in Canada, Wow that is Low!

by bigcajunman on February 25, 2013

Our friends at Stats Canada published on Friday the CPI for the year ending January 2013 and it was at a miniscule 0.5%, thanks to gas prices dropping (this may change quickly this month with gas prices shooting back up to $1.30 a liter here in Ottawa).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in the 12 months to January, following a 0.8% gain in December. The main factor in the smaller increase in the CPI was gasoline prices, which fell 1.8% year-over-year in January after rising 1.0% in December.

Gas prices seem to be the yo-yo which is causing the inflation data to be a little hard to decipher in the past few months. As can be seen from the following graphic, the Gas Index has been a little wild:

Gas Index Changes Past Little While

While the changes lately have not been as wild, it still is causing a lot of confusion when it comes to the Consumer Price Index. As I have harped on previously, fuel prices really do echo throughout the economy, since most things need to be delivered in some fashion or another.

Another interesting graphic on fuel’s effect on the CPI overall:

This is What Fuel Prices have been doing to the CPI

Our friends at Stats Can analysed and pointed out that:

Food prices increased 1.1% on a year-over-year basis in January following a 1.5% advance in December. This slower rise was mainly attributable to easing price increases for food purchased from stores, notably meat. January’s 0.6% year-over-year advance in the food purchased from stores component was the smallest since July 2010.

Shelter costs rose 0.6% in the 12 months to January, matching the increase in December. Rent and homeowners’ replacement cost was up on a year-over-year basis. Conversely, mortgage interest cost decreased 4.2%.

Here is the graph of the CPI over the past little while too:

CPI Over Past Little While

Bank of Canada View

Remember the Bank of Canada measures CPI in a little different way but their version of CPI is still low-ish:

The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 1.0% in the 12 months to January, following a 1.1% gain in December.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index rose 0.1% in January, matching the increase in December.

The Big Table

Here is the data from one of the BIG tables showing which categories had the biggest jump year over year and month over month:

Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada - Not seasonally adjusted

	Relative importance¹	January 2012	December 2012	January 2013	Dec 2012 to Jan 2013	Jan 2012 to Jan 2013
	%	(2002=100)			% change
All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI)	100.00²	120.7	121.2	121.3	0.1	0.5
Food	15.99	130.2	131.2	131.6	0.3	1.1
Shelter	27.49	127.1	127.5	127.8	0.2	0.6
Household operations, furnishings and equipment	11.55	112.2	113.2	113.5	0.3	1.2
Clothing and footwear	5.31	89.3	89.2	87.9	-1.5	-1.6
Transportation	20.60	127.4	125.8	126.7	0.7	-0.5
Health and personal care	4.95	118.1	118.6	118.5	-0.1	0.3
Recreation, education and reading	11.20	102.6	105.3	103.7	-1.5	1.1
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products	2.91	136.3	138.3	138.9	0.4	1.9
Special aggregates
Core CPI³	82.15	118.4	119.5	119.6	0.1	1.0
All-items CPI excluding energy	89.92	117.9	118.7	118.7	0.0	0.7
Energy⁴	10.08	155.5	151.9	152.8	0.6	-1.7
Gasoline	5.80	174.7	171.7	171.6	-0.1	-1.8
All-items CPI excluding food and energy	73.93	115.2	116.0	115.9	-0.1	0.6
Goods	47.80	113.6	112.6	112.9	0.3	-0.6
Services	52.20	127.8	129.7	129.6	-0.1	1.4

1.2009 CPI basket weights at April 2011 prices, Canada, effective May 2011. Detailed weights are available under the Documentation section of survey 2301 (www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/2301-eng.htm).

2.Figures may not add to 100% as a result of rounding.

3.The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the Consumer Price Index’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components. For additional information on the core CPI, please consult the Bank of Canada website (www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/).

4.The special aggregate “Energy” includes: electricity; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; and fuel, parts and supplies for recreational vehicles.

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Inflation Below 1% to end 2013 in Canada

by bigcajunman on January 28, 2013

Friday our friends at Stats Canada published their monthly report on the Consumer Price Index and thanks to moderating gasoline prices inflation fell back to about 0.8% year over year (effectively for 2013 then), which should cement interest rates at the current settings for a while. This inflation rate (year over year) matches the one in November so the rate of increase seems to be stuck below 1.0% which is good for all consumers.

CPI for the Past Little While From Stats Canada

That graph really shows some wacky jumps in the index, but remember it is all well under 4.0% too, so it really isn’t that bad.

The one paragraph that does worry me in the report states:

Food prices rose 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in December following a 1.7% increase in November. Consumers paid 2.2% more for food purchased from restaurants and 4.4% more for meat. In contrast, prices declined 5.8% for fresh vegetables.

Which says that to feed ourselves is costing much more than inflation these days, we lovers of meat are not happy, however the great news is that the price of fresh vegetables has dropped (although I haven’t really noticed it much at the store). Healthy food dropping in price is a good thing. Vegetarians must be quite chuffed by this news.

A graphic I don’t usually show, is quite good for understanding where prices are increasing the most, so I include this for the sake of completeness:

By component price increase (year over year)

Bank of Canada’s core index

Remember the Bank of Canada measures their CPI a little differently but it is still quite moderate at 1.1% to quote Stats Canada:

The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 1.1% in the 12 months to December, following a 1.2% advance in November.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index increased 0.1% in December after registering no change in November.

The Big Table

To end this quick report I include one of the large tables from Stats Canada outlining price increase by group in the actual index, read all the tables too, they have a lot of good information in there:

Table 1 Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada - Not seasonally adjusted

	Relative import	December 2011	November 2012	December 2012	Nov to Dec 2012	Dec 2011 to Dec 2012
	%	(2002=100)			% change
All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI)	100.00²	120.2	121.9	121.2	-0.6	0.8
Food	15.99	129.3	131.4	131.2	-0.2	1.5
Shelter	27.49	126.8	127.5	127.5	0.0	0.6
Household operations, furnishings and equipment	11.55	111.8	113.7	113.2	-0.4	1.3
Clothing and footwear	5.31	89.1	92.5	89.2	-3.6	0.1
Transportation	20.60	125.2	127.3	125.8	-1.2	0.5
Health and personal care	4.95	118.1	118.7	118.6	-0.1	0.4
Recreation, education and reading	11.20	104.1	106.1	105.3	-0.8	1.2
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products	2.91	135.8	138.3	138.3	0.0	1.8
Special aggregates
Core CPI³	82.15	118.2	120.2	119.5	-0.6	1.1
All-items CPI excluding energy	89.92	117.5	119.3	118.7	-0.5	1.0
Energy⁴	10.08	152.7	153.8	151.9	-1.2	-0.5
Gasoline	5.80	170.0	175.9	171.7	-2.4	1.0
All-items CPI excluding food and energy	73.93	115.0	116.7	116.0	-0.6	0.9
Goods	47.80	112.6	113.8	112.6	-1.1	0.0
Services	52.20	127.7	129.9	129.7	-0.2	1.6

1. 2009 CPI basket weights at April 2011 prices, Canada, effective May 2011. Detailed weights are available under the Documentation section of survey 2301 (www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/2301-eng.htm).

2.Figures may not add to 100% as a result of rounding.

3.The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the Consumer Price Index’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components. For additional information on the core CPI, please consult the Bank of Canada website (www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/).

4.The special aggregate “Energy” includes: electricity; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; and fuel, parts and supplies for recreational vehicles.

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Previous entries

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Big Table

Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada - Not seasonally adjusted

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Big Table

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Really Big Table

Bank of Canada View

The Big Table

Relative importance1

January 2012

December 2012

January 2013

Dec 2012 to Jan 2013

Jan 2012 to Jan 2013

%

(2002=100)

% change

All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI)

100.002

120.7

121.2

121.3

0.1

0.5

Food

15.99

130.2

131.2

131.6

0.3

1.1

Shelter

27.49

127.1

127.5

127.8

0.2

0.6

Household operations, furnishings and equipment

11.55

112.2

113.2

113.5

0.3

1.2

Clothing and footwear

5.31

89.3

89.2

87.9

-1.5

-1.6

Transportation

20.60

127.4

125.8

126.7

0.7

-0.5

Health and personal care

4.95

118.1

118.6

118.5

-0.1

0.3

Recreation, education and reading

11.20

102.6

105.3

103.7

-1.5

1.1

Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products

2.91

136.3

138.3

138.9

0.4

Relative importance¹

Dec 2012
to Jan 2013

Jan 2012
to Jan 2013

100.00²

Core CPI³

Energy⁴