Canadian Personal Finance Blog

Archive for the ‘Bank’ Category

Parity Between US Buck and Loonie?

That is what the CIBC and their analyst Zafar Bhatti thinks. Same reasons as previous Loonie flights but still worth noting:

• Commodity prices, and Canada being the Northern Resource Kingdom to the U.S. (and a lot of the world)
• Potential for higher interest rates in Canada, thus strengthening the dollar (remember targets are June)
• Canada is a good investment in terms of our credit balance. Yes our Government is in debt, but nothing like the Americans, and most of our debt is held by Canadians themselves (i.e. Savings Bonds), so we are a good risk (maybe we can get a Amex Platinum for Nations?)

An excellent quote from the CIBC is:

…This puts the Bank of Canada between a rock and a hard place, if they signal rates are going to rise, the Canadian dollar will make a run for parity or stronger…

A blip over the summer with a subsiding in the fall might be a good thing for Canadian consumers, maybe.

Big Deal!

Well, actually it can be a very big deal if the Canadian dollar gets really strong, it will cause Canadian products to be too expensive for your Yankee cousins (whether the Canadian dollar strengthens against the Chinese currency and the Euro remains to be seen). Many, many small Canadian firms rely on trade with the U.S. and a soaring Loonie will cause that market to dry up, unless the manufacturers slash prices in reaction to this rise.

Reverse cross border shopping will start again. Many things are cheaper in the U.S. if you simply look at the price tag, and if the Canadian Dollar can buy the same as a U.S. dollar, why shop in Canada? For someone in Ottawa you are 55 minutes from Ogdensburg, and not that far from other U.S. towns and cities that will see an influx of “Frost Back” Canadians with their Beaver Bucks in hand. This will help these border towns a great deal, but will have the reverse effect on Canadian border towns.

Is this a permanent thing? I have no bloody idea, but I am now looking at US Index funds (and ETF’s) thinking that if the Canadian dollar goes any higher am I getting a bargain? As is pointed out in the CIBC report, if American Inflation explodes (say because their Government is printing money as fast as they can spend it) and the U.S. Central Bank has to raise interest rates, then this will simply be a “bulge” which will subside quickly and the Canadian Dollar may slide back to where it has been (of course if Canadian Inflation explodes in reaction to American Inflation, the two factors may cancel each other out).

I would encourage you to read over this very interesting report and form your own ideas and opinions about where we are going from here (economically).

Don’t we live in interesting times?

No Rate Hikes

So the Bank of Canada kept their overnight target rate at 1/4 per cent for March, giving us all cheap money for a little while longer. Rememmber that the C.D. Howe institute last week urged the bank to go Harder, Faster with their rate increases, but the bank is holding off for now.

The telling phrase to read in this report is:

“…Conditional on the current outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target….”

So the end of the second quarter, or say the June/July time frame, money is going to start getting tighter, which could make for an interesting summer.

Time to start planning on how you are dealing with your debt (if you have it) with a higher interest rate, or what to do about your Bonds, given interest rates will go up.

Federal Budget Looms

I suppose Larry MacDonald will again be locked in a large room with a bunch of other “sweaty” financial newspaper types in preparation for the Federal Budget scheduled for March 4th. Larry always has interesting stories about what really goes on in that room, while all these “touts” pour over the budget to boil the essence of it down to a 1 minute blurb on TV or 750 words or less for the papers.

Hopefully we shall move back to a more balanced budget and maybe put together a plan to start paying off the national debt (again), but stay tuned, I am sure there will be something exciting on Thursday.

Harder Faster

That is actually one of my favorite April Wine albums, but unfortunately it is also the message the C.D. Howe Institute is pushing for Interest Rate increases this year in their report How Soon? How Fast? Interest Rates and Other Monetary Policy Decisions in 2010.

The report itself is a very interesting read on how and why things have happened in terms of credit and interest rates, however, there is a nasty little recommendation that is in it:

When the overnight rate does begin to rise, the changes must be as aggressive as the rate cuts of 2008 and 2009 with increases of 50 basis points at every announcement date until mid-2011 not seeming unrealistic.

Remember how quick and dramatic the rate cuts were last year? There may be an equal and opposite reaction in terms of speed and rate increase this summer and into 2011, which will cause a tightening of credit and tumult in the bond markets too.

Were you planning on renewing your mortgage, or getting a new one? Might be time to lock into whatever rate you can find now, if you need to, since it seems we are in for a bumpier ride in the interest rate world.

And The Winners Are

Yes there were 10’s of entrants to get the free copies of Quicktax, and the winners are:

• • • 2Hirondelles, who was selected by my son from my lucky Pittsburgh Steelers hat.
    • JohnnyG, who was selected by my wife from that same lucky hat!

I will be contacting you via e-mail on how you would like to receive your free software. Congrats to all entrants.

There will be more giveaways soon (as soon as someone gives me more stuff to give away).

As my regular readers see, sometimes my mind wanders to weird places and I must admit I am not sure where most of this came from. On Sunday night at 5:00 PM I had nothing to write for Monday, but looked at the GPS I had just received from Christmas, started writing about a Financial GPS and from their we got to Financial Shock Collars and here we are Friday with a whole week of very odd postings by me.

I empathize with those in dire financial quandaries, but in some cases the Financial Shock Collar may be the only answer. As Mrs. C8j pointed out in a comment she made, a lot of issues with money in couples comes from lack of communication, so maybe it’s time to start talking to your spouse about money? Just an idea.

Random Shocking Thoughts

This week other Personal Finance Bloggers found more solid issues to write about, and some are well worth checking out in this weeks Random Thoughts:

• Given the C.D. Howe institute put out a very good e-brief Saver’s Choice: Comparing the Marginal Effetive Tax Burdens which has caused many bloggers to discuss this interesting point.
• Michael James spoke of this in his post RRSP versus TFSA where he discusses various scenarios about putting your money in either savings vehicle.
• The Canadian Capitalist also posted talking about the C.D. Howe’s take on TFSA versus RRSP where he talks about the Howe findings specifically.
• Canadian Financial DIY also comments on the Howe findings in New Data on TFSA vs RRSP and Canada’s Rube Goldberg Tax System.
• On a related topic, Larry MacDonald talks about RRSPs and business owners and how business owners might want to think about setting up RRSPs for their retirement, or perhaps even TFSAs?
• Preet wraps up his expose with Severing the Link Between Price and Weight Part IV.
• Million Dollar Journey talks about where they might get the money to put into their RRSP or TFSA with a the post How I saved 70% on my grocery bill, remember 50% off meat should be eaten the day you buy it too!
• Gail Vaz-Oxlade writes an important spiritual posting about Keeping Focus, which is important in this day and age, don’t get distracted from your goals.
• Let’s stop the madness is a very good rant by Ellen Roseman about the dirty tricks being played on some consumers, read this and be warned!
• I hadn’t noticed but Dave over a Investing Intelligently Got Laid Off, now it looks like he has found something, but does bring home that the alleged “recovery” may not be fully entrenched yet!

Enjoy your weekend, and remember, if you think you need a Financial Shock Collar, please get some help!

On Monday, Labor numbers which are out today!

It has been pointed out that my post yesterday about a Real Service for Chronic Over Spenders is at best naive at worst unlikely to ever happen. Why wouldn’t a bank run a service like this? The answer is simple, it does not make them any money.

Banks make money on:

• Customers who carry balances on their credit cards.
• Customers that use the over-draft service available to them.
• Folks with bad credit that don’t get preferential interest rates.
• Consumers who do not carry the minimum balances in their bank accounts to get free banking (and thus pay $25 a month in service fees)
• Debtors who do not pay back their loans quickly (i.e. they do not make over payments)

This is an interesting paradigm for the Banks.

They must portray themselves as being helpful, trustworthy and someone who wants you to succeed in your financial journey, when in fact anyone who does succeed, does not make the bank a lot of money. I have friends who have paid off their mortgages in 5 years instead of 25 years, saving themselves tens of thousands of dollars (but in turn costing the bank tens of thousands of dollars in lost interest earnings), yet the bank must publicly say that this is a good customer, even though they are bad for their business.

A good bank customer makes minimum payments on their debts (especially their credit cards), incurs many service fees (or penalties) and rarely if ever talks to anyone in the bank about their issues. Reading that sentence it seems to be an oxymoron, in that it seems to be a description for a bad client, but if all you look at is the bottom line banks will fight over getting these customers.

How do they fight over them? They offer interest free credit cards (for the first six months), and lower interest rates on loans (for the first year), and other interesting marketing gimmicks (free iPods even). These customers make banks much more money than someone who is careful about their debt load, and that keep meticulous records of every purchase and pay things off quickly.

Conclusions

This week I have let my imagination run a little wild, on the problem of how to help people who spend too much or that are chronically in debt, but at the end of it the answers are evident:

God helps those that helps themselves –Anonymous

The banks will help you, but be careful of the help you get –Big Cajun Man

It is kind of like the guns don’t kill people, people kill people argument the NRA uses, in an obtuse way of thinking. People get into debt trouble because they can’t control their spending, and try to fix their spending issues with more debt, which the bank gladly obliges, and the financial death spiral (TM) begins.

Final conclusion:Getting out of debt is hard work, choose your tools to get out of debt carefully (unless you would like to try out a prototype Financial Shock Collar, then contact me).