Canadian Personal Finance Blog

Stats Canada published the Consumer Price Index for September is at 3.4% which is a 0.1% drop (in increase) from August’s numbers.

A full explanation from Stats Canada says:

The CPI excluding gasoline increased 2.2% in the 12 months to September; stripping away all energy components, the CPI advanced 1.9%.

Of the eight major components of the CPI, shelter costs remained the primary contributor to the 12-month increase in consumer prices in September. Food costs replaced transportation as the second leading contributor. Transportation costs, now third, continued to be buoyed by higher gasoline prices, although lower prices for vehicles have had a moderating effect.

Increasing costs for mortgage interest, natural gas and fuel oil and other fuels continued to propel costs for shelter. Nearly all food items registered price increases, but bread and cereal products, fresh fruit and vegetables and dairy products contributed significantly to higher food prices in September.

So if you are to believe the numbers inflation without oil isn’t too bad, but with oil prices added things are not quite so good. Given the free fall in the price of gasoline and oil, will we start seeing a big drop in Inflation, or even Deflation soon? Good question.

Black Friday for Stocks?

Futures for all American indexes are way down and it looks like another Black sell off Friday ahead for investors. More bargains to be had, but for those holding stocks, more money going out the window, for now.

The markets had a rally yesterday and many stocks had nice comebacks, but will it last? All of this hinges on some kind of remedy on the mess in the U.S., so only time will tell on this one.  Will it all come back to where we were before this mess? Most stocks will, but some may take a long time to come back (my guess anything to do with Financial Institutions in the states, or that had exposure to this mess).

No Trigger For Canadian Housing Bubble Burst

The CIBC is claiming their is no trigger to cause a housing price meltdown similar to the one in the U.S., since we don’t have sub-prime loans and we only have a small percentage of non-conforming mortgages. Good to hear someone say that, but wasn’t the CIBC one of the Canadian banks most affected (effected?) by this whole mess in the U.S.? 

GDP Up in July

The Canadian GDP was up 0.7% in July which is good and is larger than the increases of only 0.1% in May and July. This information while useful also precurses the current financial mess that we are in, but it is still heartening to think that the Canadian Economy for now is doing ok.

GDP for July 2008

Another Surplus for 2008

Jim Flaherty announced that this year Canada will have a budget surplus of almost $3B. That news can only help the Conservatives during the election, and just makes me wonder what will be done with that extra money? My hope is more National Debt pay down, which will help our kids as much as any Green Tax might (IMHO).

Fraud Remedied

TD has repaid me the money that was defrauded from my account, using a duplicate made of my wife’s access card (I am a Victim of Debit Card Fraud). All of it was paid back, which was good, but it did take a while, so I owe some money on my secured line of credit as well. TD phoned to say that the case had been referred to the police and would not comment any further. The next time I am in Montreal I will look for Bar Le Bievre which was where the withdrawals came from, just for my own curiousity.

Our friends at Stats Canada published their Leading Indicators for August 2008 yesterday and things in the Canadian economy seem to be doing ok, not great, but not as bad as some might think. 

The most interesting statement made was:

Household demand has remained the most consistent source of growth in recent months. Sales of furniture and appliances grew steadily, helped by a steady housing market. Housing starts rebounded in August. Meanwhile, personal services have become the main prop to growth in services employment. Sales of other durable goods were an exception to the strength in household spending, reflecting slower auto sales over the summer in response to record gasoline prices.

The housing index dropped, which may mean more reasonable housing prices or a slowing of the price increases we have seen, which is good as well.

Speaking of House Prices

The Citizen talks about how new price valuations for homes across Ontario are about to be sent out by The Municipal Property Assessment Corporation. Remember these valuations have been frozen for the past two years, so these new numbers could be pretty darn crazy (given a 20% price increase since 2005 on average in Ontario). 

“Residential property values have increased by an average of approximately 20 per cent across Ontario since 2005, when the last assessment update was done. Because of the four-year phase-in, property taxpayers will see an average assessment increase of five per cent next year,” Carl Isenburg, president and chief administrative officer of the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC)…

 
I look forward to seeing this envelope in the mail.

Quick Run Around the Blogs

Some excellent articles this week from other bloggers worth having a look at:

• Nancy Zimmerman writes about 10 tips to change a small money habit, where she discusses how to stop buying lunch out (micro economics at it’s best). 
• Michael James writes about the Current Financial Mess and gives a very philosophical view that we are still living good lives, we just need to figure that one out. 
• All About Nortel has an excellent article questioning the former Telecom Diva’s decision to Sell Off Their Metro Ethernet product. Good research.
• The Canadian Capitalist writes about the implications of the Fall of AIG, a little depressing, but good research as well. 
• No Debt Plan writes an interesting view on Credit Card Victims Don’t Pay for 100% of My Credit Card rewards. 

Consumer Price Index at 3.4% for July

All I can say is “Uh Oh”, with the CPI numbers for July
being released by Stats Canada.

July saw the highest 12-month increase since March 2003. A climb in gasoline prices was the primary source of higher consumer prices in July. The 12-month variation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the gasoline price index have been increasing at a faster pace over the past four months.

Inflation without gas prices included in it, is at 2.1%, which isn’t as bad, but it is still startling to see these numbers jumping up like this.

On Going Consumer Price Index Graph

This means other prices are going up but not as dramatically, but this is very worrying and I wonder what the Bank of Canada may do about this? Gas prices seem to have plateau’ed for now, but what is going to happen this fall?

More information after the BIG table

Leading Indicators Remain Flat

The composite leading indicators remained unchanged for another month, for July. This is the second straight month this is happening, but the actual results are quite mixed. The Housing Index seems to be the biggest drop and is the heaviest anchor keeping the index from rising (which is a good thing, I think), and New Orders in manufacturing is up too (i.e. people or companies are buying more).

Humor: And You Can’t Even Rely On Teenage Sex Either!

Yup Stats Canada put out a study that says that Teenage sex in Canada is on the Decline.

In 2005, 43% of teens aged 15 to 19 reported that they had had sexual intercourse at least once, down from 47% in 1996/1997.

The decline was due to young women, among whom the proportion who reported having had sexual intercourse fell from 51% to 43%. The proportion of young men who had had intercourse remained unchanged at 43%.

After doing the simple math in my house, I am going to go ground 2 of my three daughters!!!