That is what the CIBC and their analyst Zafar Bhatti thinks. Same reasons as previous Loonie flights but still worth noting:
An excellent quote from the CIBC is:
…This puts the Bank of Canada between a rock and a hard place, if they signal rates are going to rise, the Canadian dollar will make a run for parity or stronger…
A blip over the summer with a subsiding in the fall might be a good thing for Canadian consumers, maybe.
Well, actually it can be a very big deal if the Canadian dollar gets really strong, it will cause Canadian products to be too expensive for your Yankee cousins (whether the Canadian dollar strengthens against the Chinese currency and the Euro remains to be seen). Many, many small Canadian firms rely on trade with the U.S. and a soaring Loonie will cause that market to dry up, unless the manufacturers slash prices in reaction to this rise.
Reverse cross border shopping will start again. Many things are cheaper in the U.S. if you simply look at the price tag, and if the Canadian Dollar can buy the same as a U.S. dollar, why shop in Canada? For someone in Ottawa you are 55 minutes from Ogdensburg, and not that far from other U.S. towns and cities that will see an influx of “Frost Back” Canadians with their Beaver Bucks in hand. This will help these border towns a great deal, but will have the reverse effect on Canadian border towns.
Is this a permanent thing? I have no bloody idea, but I am now looking at US Index funds (and ETF’s) thinking that if the Canadian dollar goes any higher am I getting a bargain? As is pointed out in the CIBC report, if American Inflation explodes (say because their Government is printing money as fast as they can spend it) and the U.S. Central Bank has to raise interest rates, then this will simply be a “bulge” which will subside quickly and the Canadian Dollar may slide back to where it has been (of course if Canadian Inflation explodes in reaction to American Inflation, the two factors may cancel each other out).
I would encourage you to read over this very interesting report and form your own ideas and opinions about where we are going from here (economically).
Don’t we live in interesting times?
As my regular readers see, sometimes my mind wanders to weird places and I must admit I am not sure where most of this came from. On Sunday night at 5:00 PM I had nothing to write for Monday, but looked at the GPS I had just received from Christmas, started writing about a Financial GPS and from their we got to Financial Shock Collars and here we are Friday with a whole week of very odd postings by me.
I empathize with those in dire financial quandaries, but in some cases the Financial Shock Collar may be the only answer. As Mrs. C8j pointed out in a comment she made, a lot of issues with money in couples comes from lack of communication, so maybe it’s time to start talking to your spouse about money? Just an idea.
This week other Personal Finance Bloggers found more solid issues to write about, and some are well worth checking out in this weeks Random Thoughts:
Enjoy your weekend, and remember, if you think you need a Financial Shock Collar, please get some help!
On Monday, Labor numbers which are out today!
It has been pointed out that my post yesterday about a Real Service for Chronic Over Spenders is at best naive at worst unlikely to ever happen. Why wouldn’t a bank run a service like this? The answer is simple, it does not make them any money.
Banks make money on:
This is an interesting paradigm for the Banks.
They must portray themselves as being helpful, trustworthy and someone who wants you to succeed in your financial journey, when in fact anyone who does succeed, does not make the bank a lot of money. I have friends who have paid off their mortgages in 5 years instead of 25 years, saving themselves tens of thousands of dollars (but in turn costing the bank tens of thousands of dollars in lost interest earnings), yet the bank must publicly say that this is a good customer, even though they are bad for their business.
A good bank customer makes minimum payments on their debts (especially their credit cards), incurs many service fees (or penalties) and rarely if ever talks to anyone in the bank about their issues. Reading that sentence it seems to be an oxymoron, in that it seems to be a description for a bad client, but if all you look at is the bottom line banks will fight over getting these customers.
How do they fight over them? They offer interest free credit cards (for the first six months), and lower interest rates on loans (for the first year), and other interesting marketing gimmicks (free iPods even). These customers make banks much more money than someone who is careful about their debt load, and that keep meticulous records of every purchase and pay things off quickly.
This week I have let my imagination run a little wild, on the problem of how to help people who spend too much or that are chronically in debt, but at the end of it the answers are evident:
God helps those that helps themselves –Anonymous
The banks will help you, but be careful of the help you get –Big Cajun Man
It is kind of like the guns don’t kill people, people kill people argument the NRA uses, in an obtuse way of thinking. People get into debt trouble because they can’t control their spending, and try to fix their spending issues with more debt, which the bank gladly obliges, and the financial death spiral (TM) begins.
Final conclusion:Getting out of debt is hard work, choose your tools to get out of debt carefully (unless you would like to try out a prototype Financial Shock Collar, then contact me).
I have had some fun with a few over the top ideas for folks who cannot control their spending (i.e. their internal shock collars seem to have gone off line), but I have thought about a service that banks might offer that would be worth their exorbitant monthly service charges.
Think of a system that:
If a bank offered this or a service similar to this, I might view that as a good use of my money if I had to pay for the service. I don’t think I’d use this service (although I might try it out for a while), but this might be what some folks might need, almost a Financial Nanny or Money Conscience concept (both terms copyrighted by me).
Do most people need these kind of services? Maybe not, but it is evident that some folks might benefit from this kind of helpful concept.
Some banks already offer parts of the service, by giving their customers access to cheaper or free copies of Quicken to help track their spending, but the financial feedback loop needs to be much tighter than the control that Quicken puts out (and maybe needs to be a little more severe in it’s ramifications as well).
Is this kind of interventionist methodology needed? My opinion is, in some instances, yes because there is a shocking lack of financial training for consumers. Money and manipulating it is one of the top skills any adult needs to survive in this world, yet the amount of training given to teenagers and young adults is negligible.
In the past few days there have been a few headlines that most folks who knew about the subject would say, “Well that was obvious wasn’t it?”:
In contrast I was surprised to see that my Secured Line of Credit and my Unsecured Line of Credit have the exact same interest rate (currently). For those unaware typically a secured line of credit has a lower interest rate because it is secured against something of higher value (e.g. a house), and an unsecured line of credit is simply the bank figuring you are a reliable enough person to loan money (and presumably pay it back in a timely fashion).
My guess is this is a fiduciary anomaly, and will soon be remedied by my bank, but given I don’t use the unsecured loan vehicle, maybe it won’t be? I’ll keep watching to see if and when my bank notices this interesting situation.
What will I be surprised by next? Free Banking?