Stats Canada published the June 2011 Consumer Price Index numbers (for Canada), and they were better than the previous month, but still kind of high (if you use the Bank of Canada’s thresholds).
The year-over-year rate for June is 3.1% (about 0.6% lower than May), which is better, but still not great.
The usual culprits were at the root of the increase; unfortunately, the “domino effect” of energy prices is now finding its way into our food expenses as well:
Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.8% in the 12 months to June after increasing 4.2% in May.
Energy prices advanced 15.7% during the 12 months to June, following a 16.6% increase in May. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 28.5%, slightly less than the 29.5% gain in May. Prices for fuel oil and electricity also rose, while natural gas prices fell 4.6%.
Gas prices are just off the hook if we use the vernacular of the younger folks.
Without food and energy, the price index really only went up 1.4%, but then again, who cares? Energy and food are the two killer expenses for most (if not all) of us, and excluding them is like saying if you exclude water and air pollution, things aren’t too bad on the Earth.
For the head-scratching part of our data, dig the following statement about the Bank of Canada core index:
The Bank of Canada’s core index advanced 1.3% in the 12 months to June, following a 1.8% gain in May. The slower increase in June was mostly attributable to the decline in prices for the purchase of passenger vehicles and traveller accommodation.
What the hell are these guys measuring?!?! Well, as long as it stays low on this scale, I guess interest rates won’t shoot up too fast (or too quickly), but I could be wrong on that one too.
The Really Big Table
What did each part of the index contribute to this increase? Have a look at this helpful table from Stats Canada and you can see the big culprits. Look for the BOLD RED numbers to help you out.
Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada Not seasonally adjusted
| Relative importance ¹ | June 2010 | May 2011 | June 2011 | May to June 2011 |
June 2010 to June 2011 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | (2002=100) | % change | ||||
| All-items CPI | 100.00 ² | 116.2 | 120.6 | 119.8 | -0.7 | 3.1 |
| Food | 15.99 | 123.0 | 127.7 | 128.3 | 0.5 | 4.3 |
| Shelter | 27.49 | 123.3 | 125.2 | 125.4 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| Household operations, furnishings and equipment | 11.55 | 108.6 | 110.4 | 110.7 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.31 | 89.7 | 93.7 | 90.4 | -3.5 | 0.8 |
| Transportation | 20.60 | 117.3 | 128.9 | 125.5 | -2.6 | 7.0 |
| Health and personal care | 4.95 | 114.7 | 117.2 | 116.9 | -0.3 | 1.9 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 11.20 | 104.2 | 106.1 | 106.0 | -0.1 | 1.7 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 2.91 | 132.2 | 135.7 | 135.6 | -0.1 | 2.6 |
| Special aggregates | ||||||
| Core CPI ³ | 82.15 | 115.6 | 117.8 | 117.1 | -0.6 | 1.3 |
| All-items CPI excluding energy | 89.92 | 114.6 | 117.3 | 116.8 | -0.4 | 1.9 |
| Energy | 10.08 | 135.7 | 160.2 | 157.0 | -2.0 | 15.7 |
| Gasoline | 5.80 | 142.8 | 190.5 | 183.5 | -3.7 | 28.5 |
| All-items CPI excluding food and energy | 73.93 | 112.7 | 115.0 | 114.3 | -0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goods | 47.80 | 108.7 | 114.4 | 112.8 | -1.4 | 3.8 |
| Services | 52.20 | 123.6 | 126.7 | 126.8 | 0.1 | 2.6 |
Inflation and Consumer Price Index 2011
- Inflation Slows a Little to End 2011. Consumers paid 4.4% more for food in the 12 months to December, down from 4.8% the month before. The year-over-year change for food purchased from stores eased in December to a 5.0% gain from 5.7% in November.
- CPI still Hot for November 2011 in Canada. Consumer prices rose 2.9% in the 12 months to November, matching the October increase. While the 12-month change in gasoline prices continued to ease, year-over-year food prices remained high.
- CPI Slows for October 2011 in Canada. Energy prices rose 11.7% in the 12 months to October, down from a 12.5% gain in September. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 18.2%, after advancing 22.7% in September. Prices for fuel oil increased 22.1% in October, following a 27.4% rise the month before. Electricity prices rose, while natural gas prices continued to decline.
- Inflation on the Rise in September in Canada (2011). Energy prices rose 12.5% in the 12 months to September, after a 13.4% increase in August. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 22.7%, after gaining 22.8% in August. Fuel oil prices rose 27.4%, while natural gas prices fell 4.7%.
- CPI on the Rebound August 2011 in Canada. The 0.4 percentage point difference between the year-over-year increases posted in August and July mainly resulted from price increases for passenger vehicles, electricity, homeowners’ home and mortgage insurance, telephone services, and jewellery.
- Inflation Slows in July 2011 but Still High(ish). Energy prices rose 12.9% in the 12 months to July, after a 15.7% increase in June. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 23.5%, compared with the 28.5% gain in June. In contrast, natural gas prices fell. Food prices rose 4.3% in the 12 months to July, matching June’s increase. Excluding food and energy, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.2% in the 12 months to July, after advancing 1.4% in June.
- CPI Slows in Canada (June 2011). Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.8% in the 12 months to June, up from 4.2% in May. Energy prices rose 15.7% in the 12 months to June, after increasing 16.6% in May. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 28.5%, slightly less than the 29.5% gain in May. Fuel oil and electricity prices also rose, while natural gas prices fell 4.6%.
- Yikes: CPI hits 3.7% Gas to Blame for May 2011. Energy prices rose 16.6% in the 12 months to May, after a 17.1% increase in April. Gasoline prices rose 29.5%, the largest increase since September 2005, when prices rose after Hurricane Katrina. The latest year-over-year increase follows a 26.4% gain in April, and leaves the gasoline index just below the peak level reached in July 2008. Fuel oil prices were also higher (+28.2%), and electricity prices rose (+0.9%), while natural gas fell 5.3%.
Is that due to a decline in the US dollar reducing the cost of US imports?