Inflation continues to rumble along, but its rate has slowed a little (year-over-year), dropping from 3.2% last month to 2.9% this month. This is better news, but still fairly high, and a real catalyst for more economic fun and games if it continues at the current rate.
Energy prices increased 11.7% during the 12 months to October, easing from the 12.5% gain in September. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 18.2%, after advancing 22.7% in September. Prices for fuel oil increased 22.1% in October, following a 27.4% rise the month before. Prices for electricity rose while prices for natural gas continued to decline.
We continue to be at the mercy of spiralling energy prices, and its domino effect on other areas, and we see that food continues to increase at about a 4.0% rate (year over year), which is bad too.
Without energy and food CPI is running at 1.5%, but in my opinion those two are the two key parts of the entire Index. Gas prices are actually stabilizing (in Ottawa at least), but I suspect as the Christmas season looms on the horizon more pricing shenanigans may start-up again.
Bank of Canada’s Core Index
Seeing as the B of C is kind enough to keep their own version of CPI we should acknowledge it:
The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 2.1% in the 12 months to October, following a 2.2% gain in September. Increases were recorded for food purchased from restaurants, passenger vehicle insurance premiums and for the purchase of passenger vehicles.
The seasonally adjusted monthly core index increased 0.2% in October, after rising 0.3% in September.
This rate being only at 2.1% means the Bank won’t be as worried about raising interest rates (yet).
The Big Table
You can find this version of the big table here, but I include it for your reading pleasure.
Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada Not seasonally adjusted
| Relative import ¹ | October 2010 | September 2011 | October 2011 | Sept to Oct 2011 | Oct 2010 to Oct 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | (2002=100) | % change | ||||
| All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 100.00 ² | 117.4 | 120.6 | 120.8 | 0.2 | 2.9 |
| Food | 15.99 | 122.7 | 128.2 | 128.0 | -0.2 | 4.3 |
| Shelter | 27.49 | 124.6 | 125.7 | 126.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Household operations, furnishings and equipment | 11.55 | 109.3 | 111.6 | 111.9 | 0.3 | 2.4 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.31 | 94.9 | 95.0 | 96.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Transportation | 20.60 | 118.6 | 126.3 | 126.5 | 0.2 | 6.7 |
| Health and personal care | 4.95 | 116.0 | 117.5 | 117.4 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 11.20 | 105.2 | 106.9 | 106.0 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 2.91 | 134.5 | 135.9 | 135.8 | -0.1 | 1.0 |
| Special aggregates | ||||||
| Core CPI ³ | 82.15 | 116.3 | 118.4 | 118.7 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| All-items CPI excluding energy | 89.92 | 115.5 | 117.8 | 117.9 | 0.1 | 2.1 |
| Energy | 10.08 | 140.5 | 156.0 | 156.9 | 0.6 | 11.7 |
| Gasoline | 5.80 | 151.8 | 180.4 | 179.4 | -0.6 | 18.2 |
| All-items CPI excluding food and energy | 73.93 | 113.9 | 115.5 | 115.6 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| Goods | 47.80 | 109.7 | 113.5 | 113.9 | 0.4 | 3.8 |
| Services | 52.20 | 124.9 | 127.8 | 127.7 | -0.1 | 2.2 |
Inflation and Consumer Price Index 2011
- Inflation Slows a Little to End 2011. Consumers paid 4.4% more for food in the 12 months to December, down from 4.8% the month before. The year-over-year change for food purchased from stores eased in December to a 5.0% gain from 5.7% in November.
- CPI still Hot for November 2011 in Canada. Consumer prices rose 2.9% in the 12 months to November, matching the October increase. While the 12-month change in gasoline prices continued to ease, year-over-year food prices remained high.
- CPI Slows for October 2011 in Canada. Energy prices rose 11.7% in the 12 months to October, down from a 12.5% gain in September. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 18.2%, after advancing 22.7% in September. Prices for fuel oil increased 22.1% in October, following a 27.4% rise the month before. Electricity prices rose, while natural gas prices continued to decline.
- Inflation on the Rise in September in Canada (2011). Energy prices rose 12.5% in the 12 months to September, after a 13.4% increase in August. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 22.7%, after gaining 22.8% in August. Fuel oil prices rose 27.4%, while natural gas prices fell 4.7%.
- CPI on the Rebound August 2011 in Canada. The 0.4 percentage point difference between the year-over-year increases posted in August and July mainly resulted from price increases for passenger vehicles, electricity, homeowners’ home and mortgage insurance, telephone services, and jewellery.
- Inflation Slows in July 2011 but Still High(ish). Energy prices rose 12.9% in the 12 months to July, after a 15.7% increase in June. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 23.5%, compared with the 28.5% gain in June. In contrast, natural gas prices fell. Food prices rose 4.3% in the 12 months to July, matching June’s increase. Excluding food and energy, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.2% in the 12 months to July, after advancing 1.4% in June.
- CPI Slows in Canada (June 2011). Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.8% in the 12 months to June, up from 4.2% in May. Energy prices rose 15.7% in the 12 months to June, after increasing 16.6% in May. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 28.5%, slightly less than the 29.5% gain in May. Fuel oil and electricity prices also rose, while natural gas prices fell 4.6%.
- Yikes: CPI hits 3.7% Gas to Blame for May 2011. Energy prices rose 16.6% in the 12 months to May, after a 17.1% increase in April. Gasoline prices rose 29.5%, the largest increase since September 2005, when prices rose after Hurricane Katrina. The latest year-over-year increase follows a 26.4% gain in April, and leaves the gasoline index just below the peak level reached in July 2008. Fuel oil prices were also higher (+28.2%), and electricity prices rose (+0.9%), while natural gas fell 5.3%.
