Our friends at Stats Canada published the November CPI numbers for Canada yesterday and the good news is that the rate of growth has not changed from October, however it is still relatively high at 2.9%. This increase is in spite of Gasoline prices moderating, and is caused mostly by food price increases (which hurts everyone).
Consumer prices rose 2.9% in the 12 months to November, matching the increase in October. While the 12-month change in gasoline prices continued to ease, the year-over-year increase in food prices remained high.
It seems like Gas and Food take turns on who(m) will be the key element to keep driving inflation, but food prices are most certainly up in the Ottawa area, whereas gasoline has been dropping slowly in price (although I do fully expect a Christmas spike in the next few days).
As you can see Gas prices are moderating (somewhat), but then again, while the price is moderating, it isn’t really dropping by that much either. I guess those folks who bought Hybrids 2 years ago are chuckling to themselves.
More interesting is seeing CPI not including food, which makes the whole CPI thing a non-issue (in my opinion). Food prices jumping hurts everyone, especially lower income folks or fixed income folks.
This graph is really telling, because it shows the erosion of the value of your earned dollars compared to inflation, not the steepness of the curve lately? Never a good thing.
Bank of Canada’s core index
The Bank of Canada’s core index, which excludes eight of the Consumer Price Index’s most volatile components as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components, rose 2.1% in the 12 months to November. This matched the rise posted in October. Increases were recorded for passenger vehicle insurance premiums, meat and bakery products.
This is better news for interest rates, but inflation does continue it’s slow methodical upward push, and when will higher interest rates be coming? I have no idea any more.
The Big Table
For my regular readers here is my favorite part of the Stats Canada report, the Big Table which shows each part of the index, enjoy it and look closely!
Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada Not seasonally adjusted
| Relative import ¹ | Nov 2010 | Oct 2011 | Nov 2011 | Oct to Nov 2011 | Nov 2010 to Nov 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | (2002=100) | % change | ||||
| All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 100.00 ² | 117.5 | 120.8 | 120.9 | 0.1 | 2.9 |
| Food | 15.99 | 123.3 | 128.0 | 129.2 | 0.9 | 4.8 |
| Shelter | 27.49 | 124.4 | 126.5 | 126.3 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| Household operations, furnishings and equipment | 11.55 | 109.5 | 111.9 | 112.1 | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.31 | 92.1 | 96.1 | 93.1 | -3.1 | 1.1 |
| Transportation | 20.60 | 120.7 | 126.5 | 127.6 | 0.9 | 5.7 |
| Health and personal care | 4.95 | 116.1 | 117.4 | 117.9 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 11.20 | 104.3 | 106.0 | 104.8 | -1.1 | 0.5 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 2.91 | 134.6 | 135.8 | 135.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Special aggregates | ||||||
| Core CPI ³ | 82.15 | 116.3 | 118.7 | 118.8 | 0.1 | 2.1 |
| All-items CPI excluding energy | 89.92 | 115.6 | 117.9 | 118.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Energy | 10.08 | 141.3 | 156.9 | 154.1 | -1.8 | 9.1 |
| Gasoline | 5.80 | 154.4 | 179.4 | 175.2 | -2.3 | 13.5 |
| All-items CPI excluding food and energy | 73.93 | 113.9 | 115.6 | 115.7 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Goods | 47.80 | 110.1 | 113.9 | 113.8 | -0.1 | 3.4 |
| Services | 52.20 | 125.0 | 127.7 | 127.8 | 0.1 | 2.2 |
Inflation and Consumer Price Index 2011
- Inflation Slows a Little to End 2011. Consumers paid 4.4% more for food in the 12 months to December, down from 4.8% the month before. The year-over-year change for food purchased from stores eased in December to a 5.0% gain from 5.7% in November.
- CPI still Hot for November 2011 in Canada. Consumer prices rose 2.9% in the 12 months to November, matching the October increase. While the 12-month change in gasoline prices continued to ease, year-over-year food prices remained high.
- CPI Slows for October 2011 in Canada. Energy prices rose 11.7% in the 12 months to October, down from a 12.5% gain in September. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 18.2%, after advancing 22.7% in September. Prices for fuel oil increased 22.1% in October, following a 27.4% rise the month before. Electricity prices rose, while natural gas prices continued to decline.
- Inflation on the Rise in September in Canada (2011). Energy prices rose 12.5% in the 12 months to September, after a 13.4% increase in August. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 22.7%, after gaining 22.8% in August. Fuel oil prices rose 27.4%, while natural gas prices fell 4.7%.
- CPI on the Rebound August 2011 in Canada. The 0.4 percentage point difference between the year-over-year increases posted in August and July mainly resulted from price increases for passenger vehicles, electricity, homeowners’ home and mortgage insurance, telephone services, and jewellery.
- Inflation Slows in July 2011 but Still High(ish). Energy prices rose 12.9% in the 12 months to July, after a 15.7% increase in June. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 23.5%, compared with the 28.5% gain in June. In contrast, natural gas prices fell. Food prices rose 4.3% in the 12 months to July, matching June’s increase. Excluding food and energy, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.2% in the 12 months to July, after advancing 1.4% in June.
- CPI Slows in Canada (June 2011). Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.8% in the 12 months to June, up from 4.2% in May. Energy prices rose 15.7% in the 12 months to June, after increasing 16.6% in May. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 28.5%, slightly less than the 29.5% gain in May. Fuel oil and electricity prices also rose, while natural gas prices fell 4.6%.
- Yikes: CPI hits 3.7% Gas to Blame for May 2011. Energy prices rose 16.6% in the 12 months to May, after a 17.1% increase in April. Gasoline prices rose 29.5%, the largest increase since September 2005, when prices rose after Hurricane Katrina. The latest year-over-year increase follows a 26.4% gain in April, and leaves the gasoline index just below the peak level reached in July 2008. Fuel oil prices were also higher (+28.2%), and electricity prices rose (+0.9%), while natural gas fell 5.3%.
