So the news is neither good nor bad (ni bon ni mal?), as Inflation continues to chug along at 2.5% for the year ending in January 2012, up from 2.3% last month, so it is going back up. Stats Canada’s report shows a few nasty things to note:
Food prices rose 4.2% on a year-over-year basis in January following a 4.4% increase in December. In January, consumers paid 4.9% more for food purchased from stores and 2.8% more for food purchased from restaurants compared with January 2011.
The cost of energy advanced 6.5% in the 12 months to January, after rising 6.0% in December. Gasoline prices increased 6.8% in January. The electricity index rose 7.3%, with notable increases recorded in Alberta and Nova Scotia. Prices for fuel oil went up 17.1% while natural gas prices fell 0.7%.
OK, so that one really does worry me. All energy is going up in price, and so is food, and frankly the rest of the index means little or nothing to me, so what I am reading is that the Real BCM Index is actually at 5.35%? This makes me (BCM) very unhappy. Living expenses should be part of the BCM index, but for now, it’s not that big a jump. I am astounded that the media does not make more of a stink about the energy and food portion of things?
The problem with this graphic is that it should also include a Food and Energy-only line. If anyone from Statistics Canada is reading, please add THAT line to get across the point that Food and Energy are spiralling up in a very nasty way.
Bank of Canada’s core index
The folks at the Bank of Canada have their own way of looking at the index, so here is their view on things:
The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 2.1% in the 12 months to January, after increasing 1.9% in December. Notable increases were recorded for electricity, food purchased from restaurants and homeowners’ replacement costs.The seasonally adjusted monthly core index rose 0.3% in January after falling 0.1% in December.
The good news is this is within their “I don’t like it, but we won’t do anything” range, but it is starting to get into the “we are annoyed and will do something” range too.
The Big Table
My favorite parts of these posts are the HUGE Table that Stats Canada includes with the monthly post.
Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada Not seasonally adjusted
| Relative import ¹ | January 2011 | Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | Dec 2011 to Jan 2012 | Jan 2011 to Jan 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | (2002=100) | % change | ||||
| All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 100.00 ² | 117.8 | 120.2 | 120.7 | 0.4 | 2.5 |
| Food | 15.99 | 124.9 | 129.3 | 130.2 | 0.7 | 4.2 |
| Shelter | 27.49 | 124.5 | 126.8 | 127.1 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| Household operations, furnishings and equipment | 11.55 | 109.6 | 111.8 | 112.2 | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.31 | 87.9 | 89.1 | 89.3 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Transportation | 20.60 | 122.8 | 125.2 | 127.4 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| Health and personal care | 4.95 | 115.8 | 118.1 | 118.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 11.20 | 102.7 | 104.1 | 102.6 | -1.4 | -0.1 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 2.91 | 135.2 | 135.8 | 136.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Special aggregates | ||||||
| Core CPI ³ | 82.15 | 116.0 | 118.2 | 118.4 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| All-items CPI excluding energy | 89.92 | 115.5 | 117.5 | 117.9 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| Energy4 | 10.08 | 146.0 | 152.7 | 155.5 | 1.8 | 6.5 |
| Gasoline | 5.80 | 163.6 | 170.0 | 174.7 | 2.8 | 6.8 |
| All-items CPI excluding food and energy | 73.93 | 113.4 | 115.0 | 115.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Goods | 47.80 | 110.5 | 112.6 | 113.6 | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| Services | 52.20 | 125.0 | 127.7 | 127.8 | 0.1 | 2.2 |
Inflation for 2012 Stories
- Inflation Below 1% to end 2012 in Canada. Food prices rose 1.5% year over year in December, after a 1.7% increase in November. Consumers paid 2.2% more for restaurant food and 4.4% more for meat. In contrast, prices declined 5.8% for fresh vegetables.
- CPI Slowing for November 2012 in Canada. Consumer prices rose 0.8% in the 12 months to November, following a 1.2% gain in October. The November increase was the smallest year-over-year gain in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since October 2009.
- Canada Inflation Steady at 1.2% in October 2012: CPI and Core Index Breakdown . Canada’s inflation stayed steady at 1.2% in October 2012. Moderating energy prices helped ease CPI, while food and shelter costs rose slightly.
- Consumer prices rose 1.2% in the 12 months to September 2012, matching the increase in August 2012. Higher energy prices, particularly for gasoline and electricity, led the advance in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. This was tempered by lower year-over-year price increases for the purchase of passenger vehicles and for food purchased from stores.
- Slowing Inflation some More for August 2012 in Canada. Canada’s inflation slowed to 1.2% in August 2012, with modest price increases for gas, food, and shelter. Core inflation held at 1.6%, offering relief to consumers.
- Inflation Lower in July in Canada 2012 . Canada’s inflation in July 2012 dropped to 1.3%, driven by lower gas and clothing prices, while food costs continued to rise. A look back at what drove CPI shifts.
- CPI Rate Up a Little for June 2012 in Canada. Canada’s CPI rose 1.5% in June 2012, driven by higher vehicle and electricity prices. Core inflation reached 2.0%, nearing the Bank of Canada’s rate-hike threshold.
- CPI Dropped in May 2012, Wow! Yes, for once the prices dropped. Gas prices were the main reason for the drop in price increases. Keep that in mind: prices were still going up, just not that fast.
- April’s CPI Child is Still Inflating (in Canada). Energy prices increased 1.1% in the 12 months to April 2012, following a 5.1% rise in March. The slower increase in April 2012 was largely due to smaller price gains in gasoline and electricity, as well as price declines in natural gas (-13.9%).
- CPI Sneaking Back up for January 2012. Food prices rose 4.2% on a year-over-year basis in January following a 4.4% increase in December. In January, consumers paid 4.9% more for food purchased from stores and 2.8% more for food purchased from restaurants compared with January 2011.
- Inflation Slows a Little to End 2011. Consumers paid 4.4% more for food in the 12 months to December, down from 4.8% the month before. The year-over-year change for food purchased from stores eased in December to a 5.0% gain from 5.7% in November.
Really? You believe StatsCan #s? Inflation has been at under 3% for years, meanwhile the housing market has skyrocketed at 10%+ for the last decade?Unemployment doesn’t track the massive shifts from full to part time work, $50/hr auto manufacturing jobs to $10/hr call center jobs, permanent work to contract/self-employment, employment in one’s field of training to unrelated survival employment. StatsCan COULD track these numbers, but they don’t. Instead they put out absolute garbage.
The truth about CPI, Unemployment stats, etc. is that if StatsCan published the real numbers it’d reveal the truth – that Canada is, at best, experiencing stagflation (those secret Cdn bank bailouts by CMHC and the feds required us to print a lot of money!) and, at worst, a depression. When was the last time that we had a protracted, five year “recession” predicated on an asset bubble (rather than the mere ebb and flow of inventories and inflation) wherein growth occured before turning to contraction in constant fits and starts? The answer is the great depression. Interestingly, depressions used to happen every 50 or so years, until the Great Depression. If this isn’t a depression, I don’t want to see one…