fbpx

Inflation 4.1% August 2021 (Ouch)

For those that have not followed me since 2005, allow me to say, I told them so. Back in 2009, I warned Inflation was coming with all this stimulation, and here it comes (in 2021).

OK, so I am very much the Blogger who Cried Wolf on Inflation. I am not even sure this is going to be the beginning of an Inflationary spiral.

Stats Canada thinks:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.1% on a year-over-year basis in August, the fastest pace since March 2003, up from a 3.7% gain in July. The increase in prices mainly stems from an accumulation of recent price pressures and from lower price levels in 2020. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.2% year over year.

From Stats Canada Consumer Price Index, August 2021

This is the highest rate since before I started commenting in 2005? Something to note folks. Governments can’t keep printing money with impunity.

Gasoline is a major driver right now as can be seen when it is taken out of the calculations. Prices are rising, and you have Governments pumping money into the situation. What happens when that money stops? The other issue is you have a reticent workforce, who doesn’t really want to go back to their crappy jobs. Not a recipe for economic greatness.

What does the Bank of Canada think about this? Actually using their calculations we are only a little bit above their goals?

lternative measuresMay 2021June 2021July 2021August 2021
Percent
Measure of core inflation based on a factor model, CPI-common (year-over-year percent change)23451.81.71.71.8
Measure of core inflation based on a weighted median approach, CPI-median (year-over-year percent change)23672.32.32.52.6
Measure of core inflation based on a trimmed mean approach, CPI-trim (year-over-year percent change)23682.72.73.13.3
Consumer Price Index statistics, preferred measures of core inflation – Bank of Canada definitions, year-over-year percent change, Canada

Source(s):Table 18-10-0256-01.

Additional Reads From Stats Canada

Previous Rants About Inflation

And that is just scratching the surface.

{ 0 comments }

Inflation 3.4% April 2021 (Told you so)

For those that have not followed me since 2005, allow me to say, I told them so. Back in 2009, I warned Inflation was coming with all this stimulation, and here it comes (in 2021). Mark my words this is only the beginning.

OK, so I am very much the Blogger who Cried Wolf on Inflation. I am not even sure this is going to be the beginning of an Inflationary spiral.

Stats Canada thinks:

Year-over-year consumer price growth (+3.4%) in April rose at its fastest pace since May 2011 amid the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly because prices fell sharply during the early months of the pandemic. As some regions extended restrictions to limit the spread of COVID-19, causing employment losses for some Canadians, prices grew 0.5% month over month in April 2021, the same growth rate as in March 2021.

Prices rose in every major component on a year-over-year basis. Transportation prices (+9.4%) increased in April, mainly because of higher gasoline prices compared with April 2020.

From Stats Canada Consumer Price Index, April 2021

Funny no mention of the Trillions being poured into the Economy by every Government world-wide? Maybe they ran out of ink? The Moore’s Law like growth of Real Estate prices not too much of a factor?

Transportation went up a lot, but Food and Shelter are going up big time too.

The Food thing is going to get worse, with the inability to get the migrant workers that our farms rely on into the country. Is it a good thing we need migrants to do this job? That is for another days discussion. Oh and Electricity prices in Ontario went “back up” when they changed back to a “peak” and “off peak” billing again.

What does the Bank of Canada think about this? Actually using their calculations we are only a little bit above their goals?

 January
2021
February
2021
March
2021
April
2021
 % change% change% change% change
CPI-common3,51.31.31.51.7
CPI-median4,62.12.12.12.3
CPI-trim4,72.02.02.12.3
Consumer Price Index statistics, preferred measures of core inflation – Bank of Canada definitions, year-over-year percent change, Canada

Source(s):Table 18-10-0256-01.

Save up to 50% on life insurance.

Christmas Wishes from the Past

I seem to do this a lot, so here are my Christmas wishes from years gone by:

Additional Reads From Stats Canada

Previous Rants About Inflation

And that is just scratching the surface.

{ 3 comments }

How do You do your Taxes?

Gone are the days where I did my taxes with pen and paper. Happily those days are over.

I use TurboTax to do my tax returns and for those of my direct family. Other software solutions work just as well, but I am comfortable with this tool, so I keep using it.

Typically I do my taxes over about a 1.5 month period. I must wait while the various tax receipts and such arrive at my house.

Typically the methodology followed would be something like:

  • Purchase TurboTax, at Costco. This is usually the cheapest place to get it.
  • Update TurboTax. The software does this automatically, but needs to be done. The updates are important.
  • Create this year’s tax returns for my family, based on last year’s TurboTax files. The software manages to bring forward a lot of useful info like personal info.
  • TurboTax allows you to import data from the CRA site. This year, it is more exciting, as I am locked out.
  • Use my last pay stub for most data needed, until my T-4 arrives.
  • Go into Quicken and glean out whatever information I think I can get, and do a rough estimate of what my taxes might be. Inevitably I overestimate how much tax I have paid and I start getting delusions of large tax refunds, but that is soon remedied.
    • TurboTax does have an import from Quicken tool. Every time I use it, it has not gone well, so I eschew this tool.
  • With this estimate I will see if there is a need to buy RRSP’s to lower tax owed, which usually is not the case
  • As each receipt and/or T-4 or such arrives I then type it into TurboTax and watch my estimate become a closer to reality number
  • Over this time I will remember things I have forgotten to input. I will add them with glee seeing my refund number inflate.
  • By the time the first week of March rolls around my return is 95% complete and factual (i.e. not based on estimates). I can then start thinking about E-Filing my return.
  • Finally the decision whether to submit my returns via E-File. This usually happens on a Sunday morning.
    • Sometimes, there are issues E-filing, so keep all receipts and take screen shots.

And Then?

With that, I await to see whether I forgot something (inevitably a receipt will appear near the end of March, which I have forgotten about), or whether I made an incorrect assumption, when the CRA sends me their response to my submission.

Addendum

This is a rewrite of an article from 2010.

{ 5 comments }

COVID-19 Are we F*cked ?

This is being written during March 2020 the COVID-19 Pandemic. At the time of publishing things were quite confused and unsure, but this is my simple opinion of where we in Canada may stand financially.

We are f*cked.

Is this me being overly alarmist? I hope so, but there are countless areas that are not likely to ever recover from the Pandemic.

As an addendum, this is added in September, and we are talking about having another lockdown. In Ottawa if you don’t follow the COVID protocols you will be fined $5000.

Travel and Vacation Industry

Dead.

  • The Air BnB industry and that side dodge is done. People will not be travelling much, for the next year or two. What happens to all those condos in Toronto that were bought with that in mind?
  • Cruises and Cruiselines? Good night, they are now synonymous with the Pandemic, if they recover it will be not in the near future.
  • Travel bloggers? Freebies are not going to be given out much, I think this gig is going to curtail or die off too. At this moment, Las Vegas is closed. This is not the W.C. Fields joke about visiting Philadelphia, this is Vegas, which never closes.
  • Airlines? These may recover if business travel returns, but they are going to take a beating, and will ask for a bail out.

Real Estate

F*cked

  • Construction sites are shutting down, thus screwing up the whole system.
    • People who are buying the new properties need to sell, but will have nowhere to go.
    • No one is buying a house right now, and when will they start?
  • Mortgages are being called and payments are being missed, renters are not being given reprieves either. What happens next? People being kicked out on the street? I doubt it, but you really don’t know right now.
    • Big wave of homelessness? I hope not, but the economic models aren’t there for this.
  • Over priced real estate may soon be worth less than their financing (i.e. mortgage), will we seeing folks walking away from their expensive high-rise downtown condo?

The Stock Market

F*cked currently having daily circuit-breaker calls.

  • Advisors are telling their customers to sell now, thus locking in their losses. They are following the buy high, sell low credo, that is not synonymous with getting rich.
  • FIRE and the entire early retirement craze should be forgotten for now. The markets have eviscerated those lofty goals for now.
  • The markets may rebound completely as it did in 2008, but surprisingly not as many folks got rich on that rebound as you might think.

Employment

F*cked, we had a weird job dynamic already, (the side gig world) but now it is F*cked.

  • My kids’ generation has had to have 3 part-time jobs to add up to a full time job, but none of those jobs exist right now. Restaurant jobs, are gone mostly due to the restaurants being closed. Retail jobs are gone, stores are closed.
  • The growth industries are:
    • Delivery, that is about it. Everything is being delivered now, but does anyone make any money doing this?
    • Government, because there is going to need to be a big government to deal with a broken country. Is this a good thing? I don’t think so, but I am a small L libertarian.
    • Debt, the world of debt is going to explode in terms of big money. Payday Loans, alternate loans and Bankruptcy Trustees are going to make big money in the short and mid term.
  • Will industries other than Travel go in the crapper? Lots of potential there
    • Retail, when folks don’t have a job, they aren’t going to be buying a lot of stuff.
    • Cars? If interest rates stay low, they may be OK, but if interest rates go up, this could make folks keep their old cars.
    • Oil and Gas already is in the crapper, with gas at 70 cents a litre, which makes it not worth working on the Oil Sands in Alberta.

Inflation

Coming, much like the four horsemen.

  • Governments are injecting Infinite money into the economy to try to prop it back up. I am not an economist, but even I know this is the recipe for Inflation (ever hyper-inflation). If money loses value, prices go up. Most folks don’t remember the 1970’s but this could be where we are heading (if not worse).
  • If we end up in an Inflationary spiral Interest Rates will have to be used to control things, and that is a world many folks have not lived in. I have seen 19% CSB’s in my lifetime, will I see them again?
  • Predatory loan companies making money on this? Absolutely.
  • Bankruptcy trustees may not be able to keep up with the tsunami coming at them.

Alarmist Clap Trap?

I really hope so. I hate to think we are financially f*cked as badly as I am guessing we are, but these are uncharted financial waters. I am not an economist, but I have lived for 60 years, and seen a lot of financial changes, and this one has me scared.

I hope we all come out of this with our health, and if we have that, all this other stuff can be dealt with, in some fashion or another.

Remember when we said, Get Out of Debt, it gives you options? This is what we meant.

What to Do?

First thing, take this article as simply a warning of what could happen. Next, make a plan for your financial world for:

  • The next week, what are you going to spend on? Why? Can you afford it?
  • The next month, assuming this stays the way it will.
  • Six Months, where hopefully around Autumn things start to turn around in terms of normalcy.
  • An overall recovery plan.
    • How are you going to recover your savings?
    • What is your retirement plan, given what has happened?
    • How do you plan around something like this happening again?
      • Hint: GET OUT OF DEBT !

{ 13 comments }

How to Motivate Savings

Consumers rarely do anything unless they feel they get something out of it. I keep wondering what savings motivating system banks could put in place?

Canadians are notorious for loving rewards systems, where they can accumulate points for later purchases, maybe something like that? A points system that would pay more monthly, the more money you had in your savings account?

I think I am on to something here, if banks paid people these points that they could use to purchase things, that might motivate people to save more money.

A Savings Motivating Refinement

What if this point system allowed you to swap points for money? Better still what if you didn’t accumulate points for having more savings, you accumulated money? Money that would be added to your account balance, and then the next month you might accumulate more money because of this added money?

This is possibly the greatest idea ever to motivate consumers to save money, isn’t it?

Click here to find out more about this Interesting Idea

{ 1 comment }

%d bloggers like this: