Written just after the Financial Apocalypse of 2008 and long before H1N1 and the COVID19 Pandemic of 2020, but still an interesting perspective.
“I told you this would happen…”, seems to be the battle cry from most Financial “Hacks” out there (at least the talking heads that have appeared on various news outlets for the past few months). “I predicted this would happen 2 years ago…”, or whatever platitude they spout is their self-aggrandizing statement. However, financial apocalypse predictions, happen so often who can believe them?
I Predicted It Too!
Yes, I will even state that things were going to go wrong as early as five years ago, so I must add myself to the growing list of folks who “… knew this was going to happen…”. I have said all along that the whole financial system was going to go in the tank, and I can find postings that said that!
The truest statement from all this rhetoric is this, “Economists and Financial Pundits have predicted 14 out of the past 3 recessions… “,(Anonymous).
I Predicted Other Financial Catastrophes Too!
But was I? There were about 17 rounds of layoffs between the period where I started stating in dire terms how I was about to get laid off (how close I was to getting laid off during those rounds, I have no idea). Finally, I landed in the “wrong place at the wrong time,” and my prediction came true. A sensible person might point out that my actual prediction “percentage” is about 1 in 17 or about 5% to round it to a nice number, however, I eventually was RIGHT!
These Financial Pundits seem to think if they have stated something and it happens, they are experts, but if I state something relatively possible over and over, it will most likely occur. This does not mean if I keep predicting I will win the Lottery and retire, it will happen (but if it does, you read it HERE first!). Still, if I state that it will Snow in May in Ottawa, eventually, one year it will happen (and I will be an Environmental Pundit with extraordinary intuitive powers!).
Give it a Rest, and Who Cares?
I don’t care who predicted this financial mess, and I can’t see why anyone would be proud if they did (unless they managed to manipulate the stock market to make a fortune, in which case they most likely will get stoned in the Marketplace). Prognostication in any field of endeavour is always at best “an educated guess”, but often ends up simply being a “wild-ass guess” instead.
Now, if someone would step forward and say they predicted that the Arizona Cardinals would be in the Super Bowl this year, that would be a fantastic prediction!
Leave the predictions to the Gypsies and their Tarot Cards and Tea Leaves, plan for the Worst and Hope for the Best is the way to go financially (in terms of prognostication).