Safety is Relative
So you think following the crowd is safe, because you are with others?
Ask a lemming if following the crowd is a good idea, better still ask a cow in line at the slaughterhouse, everyone else is going in this direction, it isn’t safe?
As you can tell I have been on a Risk management course and I am now full of pithy comments about risk and such, but seriously, just because everyone else is doing something, you must at least ask yourself if this is the right thing for you (especially when it comes to your money).
As I mentioned many folks who were badly singed in 2008 with stocks are looking for safer places to put their money so they think Putting Money in Bonds is Safe (or at least in Bond Mutual Funds, or Bond Indexes). Yes, normally bonds are safe(r), but there is a perfect storm right now that does not make them as safe as you think.
Everyone in the day thought Nortel was rock solid and safe, one misguided financial media maven Garth Turner was still sending misguided investors back into the killing fields of Nortel even as the stock imploded. I remember people saying, “If Nortel goes down, Canada is going to be in a bad way“, or “The Government won’t let that happen“, well it did, and again, the majority or the herd were wrong again here too.
The experts are saying commodities and Gold are a safe place to hide against wars and all the calamities of today, but I don’t understand these markets enough to feel safe in them, so I am staying out of them. Living in Canada I am effectively already feeling the benefits of commodities and gasoline, with our economy continuing to grow thanks to Oil and Commodities, maybe I should hedge some other ways to take this into consideration?
For a non-financial example look at the proliferation of tattoos in younger folks, is this the right decision? I have no idea, but my “not following the crowd” comment to my kids is, get into Dermatology, because in 20 years all those butterflies are going to be condors, and their owners are going to want to have them removed (oh and all those folks getting multiples piercings are going to want them filled in too).
The Herd is Right Sometimes
Most of the time, most of the people make mostly correct decisions, but that does not mean there should be a blind following on your part, especially when your money is involved. You must ask questions about why your money should be where it is, why it should go where folks think it should go, and don’t follow simply because everyone else is doing it.
Remember what your mother used to say, “If everyone jumped off the bridge would you follow them?”, kind of like what I did with Nortel.