Financial Predictions for 2018

My ability to see the future is unreliable, but I am willing to guess about the future. I supply these financial predictions for 2018 as an example, and anyone who uses them to make financial decisions, does it at their own peril.

Financial Predictions


BCM Financial Predictions

  1. Interest rates will continue going up. Inflation is in the air and the economy is starting to overheat. By the end of this year, the overnight rate will be at least 2.5%. This is a 150% increase, so be aware, and lower debt.
  2. The Canadian Dollar will be above 85 cents by the end of 2018. The American economy is going well for now, but the Canadian economy will do better. The Tax relief in the USA will cause their economy to overheat for a while as well (i.e. Inflation).
  3. One of the 3 following bubbles will burst:
    1. Bitcoin, someone will finally point out the Emperor is naked and it will plummet.
    2. Marijuana, the only people making money on this are going to be the Governments (and they will find ways to blow that money).
    3. Property Bubbles, things seem to be cooling down in some areas, but in Ottawa and Montreal things continue to heat up.
  4. The Old Bull in the Stock Market, will continue to rise, for the first half of the year, however one of those bubbles bursting (see 3) will stress things and the markets may end the year at the same levels. Remember to take your profits and rebalance your portfolios.
  5. Maybe not this year, but soon a prominent investing firm will be found out to be a front for an AI trading system, with few human employees. My guess is this is already going on, but the disclosure of this should cause upheaval in the trading world (but it won’t).
  6. The Phoenix pay system will be scrapped, but the new system will work no better. The cancellation will cause a larger Federal Budget deficit.
  7. There will be a bigger data breach than the Equifax catastrophe, that will be disclosed. It most likely happened in 2017.

Official Disclaimer

Please remember, these are SWAG from the BCM (simple wild ass guess from the Big Cajun Man), and you should never use these financial predictions for your financial planning.

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Happy New Year 2018

It has become a tradition that every new year I wish you all a Happy New Year. A Happy Financial New Year is also my wish for you and your loved ones. The New Year will start cold and snowy in Ottawa, so here is my New Year Wish.

All Those Happy New Years

Yes, for about 12 years I have wished you a Happy New Year

  • 2017 I pointed out that you start paying CPP and EI again, so your net pay is going to be lower.
  • 2016 Happy New Year, just didn’t happen, not sure why, must have been having a grinchy holiday?
  • 2015 Happy New Year and I included a really bad joke about it being the year of the RAM in the Chinese Calendar.
  • 2014 Happy New Year again I pointed out that CPP and EI rates were increasing as well, I really am a kill joy.
  • 2013 was a Happy New Year, a celebratory Sunday was the photo to start the year.
  • 2012 I used to post best of Twitter posts, and it seems to have fallen on a Sunday as well.
  • Merry New Year! It All Starts again…  was how 2011 started, and I included a bunch of resolutions in that article.
  • 2010 New Year began with me in a new job, which was very nice, given I had been unemployed for a while.
  • 2009 started a little bleak, in that I was unemployed, and was looking for a job, during a major economic crisis.
  • Belated Happy and Prosperous New Year was how 2008 started, the economy was booming, employment was high, but there were hints of the systemic failure that was coming soon.
  • A New Year Brings Tax Breaks? The tax breaks appeared in 2007 but later disappeared, unfortunately.
  • 2006 I was still figuring out what this whole thing was going to be, but I did show some signs of a ranting good time.

Yes, I really did start in 2005.



New Year’s Resolutions

I have written about financial resolutions and resolutions in general a great deal as well.

 

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Pessimists Make Better Financial Planners

Plan like a pessimist, live like an optimist I have lifted from Doug Hoyes’ book (amazon link) (although I have heard it elsewhere as well), and it is an excellent financial life motivational statement. You can’t live every day assuming the worst is going to happen, you will just make yourself miserable (I can assure you this is the case, from personal experience), however pessimism is the best way to view your financial plan.

If you are a pessimist in your investing and financial plans, you should be able to deal with downturns and the interesting “twists of fate” that we call life. Can you plan for all the things that can go wrong? Absolutely not, however you can take a few careful financial steps to  deal with problems that may arise in your financial life.

Pessimist and Optimist

Words to Plan By

The big one to deal with, is what if you lose your income (after the fallacy of infinite income)? So many possible reasons can cause this, but if tomorrow you had no more income, what happens?

  • Can you afford where you are living? For how long can your emergency funds keep you in your current living arrangement? If you have a mortgage, you can try to sell your house, but if you cannot keep up payments on the mortgage, you may not be able to sell it, before the bank forecloses. If you rent can you keep up rent payments for a period while you are without income?
  • Do you have any insurance to combat this lack of income? If it is caused by a catastrophic health issue, do you have disability insurance? Is it enough to keep you financially afloat? Is it through your employer? If you get sick, would your employer lay you off? Remember some companies self-insure, so if your employer goes under, and you are using their disability, you will end up like the Nortel folks on disability, out  in the
  • If you were laid off, is your résumé up to date and ready to use for job hunting? If not, why not? You should be looking for your new job before your old job disappears (ideally).
  • Dying can cause a large problem. Do you have life insurance? What happens if your insurance company decides you died of a pre-existing condition, and they won’t pay? Does your family even know about the insurance? Do they have cash available in accounts that won’t be frozen (when you die)? Lots of things to think about on this one.
  • What if your spouse dies? Do you rely on their skills to take care of your kids, or do you rely on their income to pay for your lifestyle? Partial loss of income can be as destructive as complete income loss, it just takes longer to ruin your

These are such a small slice of the whole picture. This is where your pessimistic side can come into play. Engage it  on this planning (and not  about all that stuff that keeps you awake at 2 AM in the  morning). Work hard on this plan, but  when it is done, enjoy your life you have planned as best you can to  deal with life.

In about a year (and every year) revisit the plan, and adjust it to reflect life changes as well.

My apologies to Doug Hoyes, a lot of these ideas are lifted from his fine book, which I have “read” (listened to the Audio Book), but these are important issues.

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Smart Financial Goals for 2017

Actually I borrowed the idea from our friends at LSM, who had a great article in their Facebook page about Lorne King, talking about Smart Goals, however, his SMART is an FLA (Five Letter Acronym), S.M.A.R.T. goals: Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic goals, that have a Time frame so let’s set some S.M.A.R.T. or Smart Financial Goals for 2016.

Smart financial goals

Always be smart with your financial goals

What are S.M.A.R.T. Financial Goals ?

S.M.A.R.T. for financial goals (and health or fitness goals) are exactly what you need:

  • Specific , vague goals never get attained or worse are far to easy to tick off the list. Specificity like, pay of $5000 worth of debt, is a much better goal.
  • Measurable, I have said before if you don’t write it down, how did you know it happened, and being able to measure your goal is in that genre.
  • Attainable, saying you want to retire this year (and you are 25) is a lovely goal, but not likely, but, “Put $5000 in my TFSA this year”, is much more possible
  • Realistic, if you are carrying huge debt, then a realistic plan is to deal with debt before you start looking at saving.
  • Time Frame, set a couple of short-term goals, and then a year-long one, and maybe set up some long-term goals (retiring at 55 for a 25 year old would be a good goal). Don’t create too many, three is usually a good number in these situations.

What Should Your Goals Be?

The important thing to do, is make whatever smart financial goals you might be setting for the new year, that you are comfortable with them, but they challenge you as well. Setting a goal of

“… I don’t want to screw up as bad as last year…”

is not really a smart financial goal, it’s more of a declaration of incompetence. If you are afraid this is your smart financial goal for the year, maybe you need some help.

 

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Bad Financial Planners Can Help

I am a mediocre planner (I view my Father as the greatest planner), however, knowing that I am not that good at planning gives me a peculiar talent, in that, I can spot (easily) flaws in other folks plans. I think of myself as a “risk editor” for plans.

Financial Planning

Plan and Then Revise

Let me explain, if a good planner looks at your plan, they will overlay their own fastidiousness onto your plan, and will assume you have “dotted all the I’s and crossed all the T’s”, which is a dangerous assumption for many plans. Most plans I have seen do not get down to most of the gritty details needed to make it an actual plan (e.g. Dates on which you will make deposits, pay bills, what you will do with found money), and that is where most of them fail.

For someone like me, who has failed at planning so many things in my life (not just financial things), I easily see these flaws in other folks’ plans, because I overlay my own shortcomings and just start asking questions about things (in a financial context):

  • Did you think about what would happen if you lost your job?
  • What if you or your wife had a catastrophic illness next week? How would your plan work?
  • Paying off your credit cards is here, but are you going to keep using those credit cards? You don’t seem to mention that in your plan.
  • What if interest rates suddenly jumped to 6% in 6 months? Can your plan withstand that kind of stress?
  • Are you being overly optimistic with your plans? Few of us plan realizing our own shortcomings.

Most folks really hate when I do this, because they answer me the same way my daughters did when I asked questions like, “Did you pack your runners?”, when going to an out-of-town basketball tourney. The answer is “YES, I DID!” (Read that with a snarky sarcastic tone), and then we get to the tourney, and the shoes (in fact) are still at home.

What Are You Saying?

I am not telling you to find a bad financial planner and use their plan, what I am saying is create a financial plan, and then have someone you trust (or a real financial planner) review it to see if there are risks or details that you have overlooked. Different sets of eyes sometimes can see new things.

Once you have a plan, treat it as a living document, review, revise, and update

Image courtesy of Goldy at FreeDigitalPhotos.net

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