CPI Slows for October 2011 in Canada


Inflation continues to rumble along, but it’s rate has slowed a little (year over year) from last month dropping from 3.2% from last month to 2.9% this month. This is better news, but still a fairly high number, and a real catalyst for more economic fun and games if it continues at the current rate.

Energy prices increased 11.7% during the 12 months to October, easing from the 12.5% gain in September. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices rose 18.2%, after advancing 22.7% in September. Prices for fuel oil increased 22.1% in October, following a 27.4% rise the month before. Prices for electricity rose while prices for natural gas continued to decline.

We continue to be at the mercy of spiralling energy prices, and its domino effect on other areas, and we see that food continues to increase at about a 4.0% rate (year over year), which is bad too.

CPI for the Past Little While

Without energy and food CPI is running at 1.5%, but in my opinion those two are the two key parts of the entire Index. Gas prices are actually stabilizing (in Ottawa at least), but I suspect as the Christmas season looms on the horizon more pricing shenanigans may start-up again.

Gasoline Price Index for the Past 12 Months

Bank of Canada’s Core Index

Seeing as the B of C is kind enough to keep their own version of CPI we should acknowledge it:

The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 2.1% in the 12 months to October, following a 2.2% gain in September. Increases were recorded for food purchased from restaurants, passenger vehicle insurance premiums and for the purchase of passenger vehicles.

The seasonally adjusted monthly core index increased 0.2% in October, after rising 0.3% in September.

This rate being only at 2.1% means the Bank won’t be as worried about raising interest rates (yet).

The Big Table

You can find this version of the big table here, but I include it for your reading pleasure.

Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada - Not seasonally adjusted

Relative import¹ October 2010 September 2011 October 2011 Sept to Oct 2011 Oct 2010 to Oct 2011
% (2002=100) % change
All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) 100.00² 117.4 120.6 120.8 0.2 2.9
Food 15.99 122.7 128.2 128.0 -0.2 4.3
Shelter 27.49 124.6 125.7 126.5 0.6 1.5
Household operations, furnishings and equipment 11.55 109.3 111.6 111.9 0.3 2.4
Clothing and footwear 5.31 94.9 95.0 96.1 1.2 1.3
Transportation 20.60 118.6 126.3 126.5 0.2 6.7
Health and personal care 4.95 116.0 117.5 117.4 -0.1 1.2
Recreation, education and reading 11.20 105.2 106.9 106.0 -0.8 0.8
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products 2.91 134.5 135.9 135.8 -0.1 1.0
Special aggregates
Core CPI³ 82.15 116.3 118.4 118.7 0.3 2.1
All-items CPI excluding energy 89.92 115.5 117.8 117.9 0.1 2.1
Energy 10.08 140.5 156.0 156.9 0.6 11.7
Gasoline 5.80 151.8 180.4 179.4 -0.6 18.2
All-items CPI excluding food and energy 73.93 113.9 115.5 115.6 0.1 1.5
Goods 47.80 109.7 113.5 113.9 0.4 3.8
Services 52.20 124.9 127.8 127.7 -0.1 2.2
1.2009 CPI basket weights at April 2011 prices, Canada, effective May 2011. Detailed weights are available under the Documentation section of survey 2301 (www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/index-eng.htm).
2.Figures may not add to 100% as a result of rounding.
3.The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the Consumer Price Index’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components. For additional information on the core CPI, please consult the Bank of Canada website (www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/price-indexes/cpi).

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